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How Much Is Senate Fight Worth to Coleman?

Numbers don't add up in improbable challenge: Silver

By Kevin Spak,  Newser Staff

Posted Apr 14, 2009 12:00 PM CDT

(Newser) – Norm Coleman’s chances of victory are so thin they’ve entered “Calista Flockhart territory,” yet he shows no sign of winding down his expensive legal battle, writes Nate Silver, the stat guru behind FiveThirtyEight.com. Just how expensive? Silver estimates that Coleman’s spending about $20,740 a day to pay his lawyers and keep his campaign running. And Silver doesn’t think he’s getting his money’s worth.

Here's how he calculates it: Coleman spent more than $21 million to win a 6-year Senate seat, as did Franken, making that seat worth, roughly, $9,957 per day. Just keeping Franken out of the seat is roughly as valuable for Republicans as Coleman occupying it, so he should be willing to spend that per diem to keep dragging things out. But the remaining ten grand a day is only worth it if he has a 2.2% chance to win—and Silver’s pretty sure he doesn’t. Why not save it for a future race?

Former Sen. Norm Coleman listens during proceedings in the Minnesota Senate recount trial in St. Paul, Minn. on Wednesday, March 11, 2009.
Former Sen. Norm Coleman listens during proceedings in the Minnesota Senate recount trial in St. Paul, Minn. on Wednesday, March 11, 2009.   (AP Photo/Pool, Jean Pieri)
Minnesota Democratic Senate candidate Al Franken watches a changing of the guard ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknowns, Wednesday, March 25, 2009, at Arlington National Cemetery in Arlington, Va.
Minnesota Democratic Senate candidate Al Franken watches a changing of the guard ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknowns, Wednesday, March 25, 2009, at Arlington National Cemetery in Arlington, Va.   (AP Photo/Kevin Wolf)
Former Republican Sen. Norm Coleman listens during the Senate vote recount trial Thursday, March 12, 2009 in St. Paul, Minn.
Former Republican Sen. Norm Coleman listens during the Senate vote recount trial Thursday, March 12, 2009 in St. Paul, Minn.   (AP Photo/Jim Mone,Pool)
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COMMENTS
Showing 3 of 8 comments
nick
Apr 14, 2009 7:49 AM CDT
I second that.
John
Apr 14, 2009 6:51 AM CDT
You know you are a loser when a comedian beats you. Go home and stay home!
John
Apr 14, 2009 6:50 AM CDT
You know you are a loser when a comedian beats you. Go home and stay home.

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