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THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 26, 2009
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 ANALYSIS 
9

How Much Is Senate Fight Worth to Coleman?

Numbers don't add up in improbable challenge: Silver

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(Newser) – Norm Coleman’s chances of victory are so thin they’ve entered “Calista Flockhart territory,” yet he shows no sign of winding down his expensive legal battle, writes Nate Silver, the stat guru behind FiveThirtyEight.com. Just how expensive? Silver estimates that Coleman’s spending about $20,740 a day to pay his lawyers and keep his campaign running. And Silver doesn’t think he’s getting his money’s worth.

Here's how he calculates it: Coleman spent more than $21 million to win a 6-year Senate seat, as did Franken, making that seat worth, roughly, $9,957 per day. Just keeping Franken out of the seat is roughly as valuable for Republicans as Coleman occupying it, so he should be willing to spend that per diem to keep dragging things out. But the remaining ten grand a day is only worth it if he has a 2.2% chance to win—and Silver’s pretty sure he doesn’t. Why not save it for a future race?

Former Sen. Norm Coleman listens during proceedings in the Minnesota Senate recount trial in St. Paul, Minn. on Wednesday, March 11, 2009.
Former Sen. Norm Coleman listens during proceedings in the Minnesota Senate recount trial in St. Paul, Minn. on Wednesday, March 11, 2009.   (AP Photo/Pool, Jean Pieri)
Minnesota Democratic Senate candidate Al Franken watches a changing of the guard ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknowns, Wednesday, March 25, 2009, at Arlington National Cemetery in Arlington, Va.
Minnesota Democratic Senate candidate Al Franken watches a changing of the guard ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknowns, Wednesday, March 25, 2009, at Arlington National Cemetery in Arlington, Va.   (AP Photo/Kevin Wolf)
Former Republican Sen. Norm Coleman listens during the Senate vote recount trial Thursday, March 12, 2009 in St. Paul, Minn.
Former Republican Sen. Norm Coleman listens during the Senate vote recount trial Thursday, March 12, 2009 in St. Paul, Minn.   (AP Photo/Jim Mone,Pool)
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9 comments
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woody66
Apr 14, 09 12:11 PM CDT
Headline: Coleman is toast. ............Give it up Norm. Chances of the MN Supreme Court overturning the lower court decision are nil to none. Save youself some $$ and grief. Reply
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jaguarj
Apr 14, 09 12:42 PM CDT
He's like a leech..won't let go and keeps sucking blood ($$$$) for his legal fees.... Reply
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Caps
Apr 14, 09 12:57 PM CDT
You so right jaguarj. Poor pathetic Coleman, such a poor loser Reply
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Mad
Apr 14, 09 1:31 PM CDT
Why are republicans so hell bent on keeping Franken out? Weirds me out when cons flock to single-point ideas like this. I have rarely given to a political campaign, but last year Hillary got $100 from me - think Franken is worth $20, just to take extra satisfaction when he smears Coleman with the USSC Reply
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Doctor_Zaius
Apr 14, 09 1:50 PM CDT
Certainly to Coleman it's worth his dignity and honor. Because that's what it's costing him. Reply
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