Power forward Blake Griffin is almost certainly the No. 1 pick in tonight’s NBA draft, and that scares the bejesus out of Griffin fan Gregg Doyel. “Superstars as the No. 1 pick are the exception to the rule,” Doyel writes on CBS Sports.com, conceding the point of LeBron James. In fact, "No. 1 overall draft picks tend to suck." And there’s a ton of data to back that up.
“Three of the last four picks have been monumentally bad,” Doyel writes, citing in particular the case of Greg Oden in 2007. “He made sense at No. 1, right up until the point when he didn't.” And many years produce players lower in the draft that far outmatch the top picks. “So if Blake Griffin is the no-brainer No. 1 pick in this draft, that concerns me,” Doyel concludes. “NBA teams haven't shown a lot of brains.”