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TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 24, 2009
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 ANALYSIS 
18

Good News: We've Hit Bottom!

Of course, the bad news is: We've hit bottom!

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(Newser) – Former Fed vice chairman Alan Blinder has some good news and some bad news about the economy, and it’s the same news: We’ve hit bottom. Third-quarter GDP should turn positive, and the fourth quarter could even hold an upside surprise. Growth of 3% or even 4% is utterly plausible. It’s basic arithmetic, Blinder writes for the Wall Street Journal: The sectors that have been posting insane double-digit declines have to at least go to zero.

Housing fell 39% in the first quarter; a move to 0% growth would be a mammoth improvement, sending GDP up 1%. The same will happen with autos, investment banking, and inventories. “None of these events are probabilities; they are all certainties,” Blinder writes. The downside? We’re at the worst point of the worst downturn since 1938. Employment will take years to recover. “Few people have reason to smile. (Bankruptcy lawyers maybe?)”

On the bright side, we're at an economic bottom. On the other hand, we're at an economic bottom.
On the bright side, we're at an economic bottom. On the other hand, we're at an economic bottom.   (Shutterstock)
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18 comments
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Timinator2K
Jul 24, 09 9:27 AM CDT
If Obama bin laden gets his health care and destroys small business in the US (which employs 70% of all of us who bother to work) that "bottom" will simply be a momentary plateau before the plunge straight down to the abyss. Reply
Vote up! Vote down!
-17
IN RESPONSE:
Toon
Jul 24, 09 9:35 AM CDT
You are confusing the President of the US with that Saudi guy that enriched Bush and Cheney and their friends.
Vote up! Vote down!
+13
IN RESPONSE:
Reader64481089
Jul 24, 09 10:45 AM CDT
Try real hard not to forget which President and which Party is responsible for putting the economy on the fast track to destruction, and all that too k place BEFORE Obama was elected...Trust me, the majority of this country will not forget so the sooner you overcome your denial the better
Vote up! Vote down!
+13
IN RESPONSE:
JaneMP
Jul 24, 09 11:04 AM CDT
Health care reform should actually hep small businesses because they can't afford health care for their workers.
Vote up! Vote down!
+7
IN RESPONSE:
IndependentThinker
Jul 24, 09 1:54 PM CDT
Both parties destroy small business, they are big business whores!
Vote up! Vote down!
-1

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