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House Health Care Vote Looks Like a Squeaker

But slim margin could vanish if bill moves left or right: Silver

By Nick McMaster,  Newser Staff

Posted Aug 2, 2009 10:00 AM CDT
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(Newser) – A compromise health care bill will likely squeak through the House by about two dozen votes, Nate Silver writes on FiveThirtyEight.com. The Energy and Commerce Committee’s Friday night 31-28 vote is a good model, with its similar balance of Republicans, liberal and Blue Dog Democrats. The committee passed its bill by 52.5%, which measures out to a 228-206 vote in the House.

But a more sensitive Silver analysis—including lawmaker voting records and their support for the public option—predicts a tighter 222-212 tally. Which means the final House bill cannot get more liberal without concessions, like reducing the employer mandate. But, says Silver, liberals may revolt unless the public option is bolstered. "What seems clear is that this bill probably cannot get substantially more liberal without risking failure on a floor vote."

Rep. Mike Ross, D-Ark., second from left, speaks to the media, as Rep. Frank Pallone, D-N.J., Rep. Bart Gordon, D-Tenn., and Henry Waxman, D-Calif., listen at the White House in Washington, Tuesday, July 21, 2009.
Rep. Mike Ross, D-Ark., second from left, speaks to the media, as Rep. Frank Pallone, D-N.J., Rep. Bart Gordon, D-Tenn., and Henry Waxman, D-Calif., listen at the White House in Washington, Tuesday, July...   (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
A copy of H.R. 3200, America Affordable Health Choices Act of 2009 sits on the desk of House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Calif., Wednesday, July 29, 2009.
A copy of H.R. 3200, America Affordable Health Choices Act of 2009 sits on the desk of House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Calif., Wednesday, July 29, 2009.   (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)
In this Nov. 20, 2008 file photo, Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Calif. walks away after talking to reporters on Capitol Hill in Washington.
In this Nov. 20, 2008 file photo, Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Calif. walks away after talking to reporters on Capitol Hill in Washington.   (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert, File)
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COMMENTS
Showing 3 of 4 comments
Fondue
Aug 3, 2009 9:20 AM CDT
Amen
Silverbow7
Aug 3, 2009 3:25 AM CDT
ok, *were so easy...
Silverbow7
Aug 3, 2009 3:24 AM CDT
I wish it was so easy... Democracy, along with nations, peoples, and countries, will soon no longer exists. The only thing left will be the global system of finance. They have sold us out the corporations and do expect a revolt. Look what we have taken concerning health care not to mention a phoney war. Look at how they take 'donations' from them now. It should be illegal but it is not and I'd like to know why. Am I lying?
Politics • Health • US

 
health care • House of Representatives • statistics • health care reform • House Energy and Commerce Committee • Blue Dog Democrats • Republicans

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