Top political analysts are predicting a dismal 2010 election for House Democrats, who could lose more than 20 seats, Politico reports. Acclaimed handicapper Nate Silver gives the GOP a 25% to 33% chance of winning the 40 seats they’d need to take over the House. Democratic newcomers face “a much tougher environment than in 2006 and 2008,” he reasons, and some “will inevitably freak out and end up losing.”
“Complacency is another factor," he says: It's "less compelling" for those who volunteered on the Obama campaign to work to preserve the majority. But a big part of the problem is the health care debate, which “has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and congressional Democrats,” says one analyst. “Many veteran congressional election watchers report an eerie sense of déjà vu.” Parties out of power also tend to fare well in midterms. But most analysts don’t predict a wholesale turnover. If the GOP “won 12 to 15 seats, they should be very happy about that,” says one.