Democrats Could Lose Big in House in 2010

Experts say GOP could pick up more than 20 seats

By Kevin Spak, Newser Staff

Posted Aug 31, 2009 11:24 AM CDT

(Newser) – Top political analysts are predicting a dismal 2010 election for House Democrats, who could lose more than 20 seats, Politico reports. Acclaimed handicapper Nate Silver gives the GOP a 25% to 33% chance of winning the 40 seats they’d need to take over the House. Democratic newcomers face “a much tougher environment than in 2006 and 2008,” he reasons, and some “will inevitably freak out and end up losing.”

“Complacency is another factor," he says: It's "less compelling" for those who volunteered on the Obama campaign to work to preserve the majority. But a big part of the problem is the health care debate, which “has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and congressional Democrats,” says one analyst. “Many veteran congressional election watchers report an eerie sense of déjà vu.” Parties out of power also tend to fare well in midterms. But most analysts don’t predict a wholesale turnover. If the GOP “won 12 to 15 seats, they should be very happy about that,” says one.

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President Barack Obama delivers a eulogy during the Roman Catholic Funeral Mass for Sen. Edward Kennedy at Our Lady of Perpetual Hope Basilica in Boston, Saturday, Aug., 29, 2009. (AP Photo/Brian Snyder, Pool)

Nancy Pelosi speaks at a news conference after a roundtable discussion on health care issues. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

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To have another wholesale sea change bigger than last year’s and almost as big as the two years combined is asking a lot. It’s not impossible, but you have to think that’s quite a challenge for the Republicans. - Stuart Rothenberg

When you have big waves like 2006 and 1994, you felt it early and you felt it build. I am not sure we are seeing that. While healthcare is causing some heartburn, it is still an issue that two-thirds of voters say needs reforming. - John Anzalone, Democratic pollster

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Democrats Could Lose Big in House in 2010