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50% Approval Rating Just Another Number: Silver

Obama likely to win re-election, Dems to keep House majority with current numbers

By Nick McMaster, Newser Staff

Posted Aug 31, 2009 3:11 PM CDT

(Newser) – Much has been made of President Obama’s 50% job-approval rating, but that number in and of itself is “not particularly newsworthy,” writes Nate Silver for FiveThirtyEight.com. Obama could probably win in 2012 even with approval below 50%: George W. Bush was re-elected with the approval of less than half of the electorate, as did Harry Truman.

Silver’s analysis of recent elections suggests that a president at 50% approval is as much as 90% likely to win re-election. The chances of staying in office don't reach the break-even point until he slips to 44% approval. For the 2010 House elections, Obama’s current approval correlates to a loss of 26 seats, which, though it would sting, would see Democrats remain the majority party.

[Images (2)]

[Quotes (1)]

President Barack Obama walks back to his hotel after going to the Fairmont Copley Plaza Hotel for a private meeting with the Kennedy family in Boston, Saturday, Aug. 29, 2009. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

U.S. President Harry S. Truman holds up an Election Day edition of the Chicago Daily Tribune, which, based on early results, mistakenly announced "Dewey Defeats Truman" on Nov. 4, 1948. (AP Photo/Byron Rollins)

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Against Sarah Palin, frankly, Obama could conceivably win re-election with an approval rating well into the 40's and possibly even into the 30's.
- Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight.com

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50% Approval Rating Just Another Number: Silver