Fed Has Field of Economics in Its Pocket

Fed says inflation on target, but unemployment high, growth sluggish

(NEWSER) - Don't get too excited about that pending economic rebound . The Federal Reserve's announcement it will keep interest rates super-low into 2014 is a key sign that the US economy is years away from truly recovering, reports the New York Times . Yes, the economy has picked up "moderately," said the Fed in a statement, but jobs are still scarce and growth is expected to be sluggish for the foreseeable future—2.7% in 2012, 3.2% in 2013, and perhaps as high as 4% in 2014. “What did we learn today? Things are bad, and they’re not improving at the rate that they want them to improve,” said the chief US economist at HSBC. More»

Geithner, Bernanke, others missed signs of the pending collapse

(NEWSER) - The Fed released transcripts from meetings in 2006 today that reveal just how badly its top officials blew it on the looming housing crisis, the New York Times reports. The industry was showing signs of distress, but the Fed's attitude boiled down to, eh, no big deal. The officials clearly did not grasp how "deeply intertwined the housing sector and financial markets had become," writes Binyamin Appelbaum. They would get the picture soon enough. Some highlights:

• Timothy Geithner (then with the New York Fed): “We think the fundamentals of the expansion going forward still look good," he said in December 2006. A few months earlier: “We just don’t see troubling signs yet of collateral damage, and we are not expecting much."

Forecast sees it at 8.6% at end of 2012

(NEWSER) - If President Obama were hoping for a quick election-year turnaround in the jobless rate, the Federal Reserve burst his bubble today. The Fed projected unemployment will be at 8.6% at the end of 2012, not much better than the 9.1% registered in September of this year, reports the Wall Street Journal . The projections don't get remarkably better after that: The Fed sees the rate at 8% by the end of 2013 and 7.7% the following year. More»

He advises Congress not to cut spending

(AP) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said today that the US economic recovery "is close to faltering" and that the central bank is prepared to take further steps to support it. (That potential action apparently pleased investors: The Dow came off the day's lows, fell a bit, then rebounded furiously to close up 153 .) Bernanke told the congressional Joint Economic Committee that the economy is growing more slowly than the Federal Reserve had expected. The biggest factor depressing consumer confidence is poor job growth, he added. More»

At least, in the way that matters to him

(NEWSER) - Ron Paul isn’t going to be the next president, or even the GOP nominee. “And yet, in a sense, Ron Paul is winning the 2012 Republican presidential primary,” writes Dana Milbank in the Washington Post . Because Paul’s real goal is to push his Austrian economic theories into the mainstream, and he’s succeeding wildly. “The issues have come our way,” Paul tells Milbank. “The attitude of the whole country is shifting in our direction." More»