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Many Jobs Are Gone Forever

Employment picture likely to remain grim for years, and predicting winning industries is a challenge

By Nick McMaster,  Newser Staff

Posted Oct 5, 2009 2:28 PM CDT

(Newser) – The job market is likely to be grim for years to come—economists expect that even if job creation returned to the brisk pace of the ‘90s, unemployment wouldn’t return to 5% until 2017. And for many of the unemployed, the numbers belie the real problem: The positions they're trained for may be gone forever. The real estate and finance industries, for example, will probably never support as many employees as they did before the recession.

Positions in retail and leisure depend on growth in consumer spending, which has also been slow to recover, the Wall Street Journal reports. Predicting which industries will flourish is difficult, and the likely winners—health care and analytical services, for example—generally require intensive training. Many of the unemployed, encouraged by an Obama administration push, are training for "green jobs," but those relatively new industries will require advances in technology and infrastructure before they can support large workforces.

Unemployed worker Jesus Hernandez, who has been unemployed for over a month, waits with other unemployed people at the Day Worker Center of Mountain View, in Mountain View, Calif., Friday, Oct. 2, 2009.
Unemployed worker Jesus Hernandez, who has been unemployed for over a month, waits with other unemployed people at the Day Worker Center of Mountain View, in Mountain View, Calif., Friday, Oct. 2, 2009.   (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma)
Maria Marroquin helps find work for unemployed workers at the Day Worker Center of Mountain View, in Mountain View, Calif., Friday, Oct. 2, 2009.
Maria Marroquin helps find work for unemployed workers at the Day Worker Center of Mountain View, in Mountain View, Calif., Friday, Oct. 2, 2009.   (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma)
Bob Hillman, right, the National Career Fairs event coordinator, right, talks to attendees prior to the start of the job fair in Richmond, Va., Friday, Oct. 2, 2009.
Bob Hillman, right, the National Career Fairs event coordinator, right, talks to attendees prior to the start of the job fair in Richmond, Va., Friday, Oct. 2, 2009.   (AP Photo/Steve Helber)
In this photo made Thursday, Aug. 13, 2009, job seekers look for opportunities at a job fair at New Birth Enterprise in Miami.
In this photo made Thursday, Aug. 13, 2009, job seekers look for opportunities at a job fair at New Birth Enterprise in Miami.   (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)
Amy Forst, left, and Michael Forst, right, talk with National Job Fair attendees, Kendall Wiley, second from left, and Andrew Callahan, second from right, in Richmond, Va., Friday, Oct. 2, 2009.
Amy Forst, left, and Michael Forst, right, talk with National Job Fair attendees, Kendall Wiley, second from left, and Andrew Callahan, second from right, in Richmond, Va., Friday, Oct. 2, 2009.   (AP Photo/Steve Helber)
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Wherever the US has an advantage in brainpower will be strong sources of job growth. You have to keep generating the innovations here in order to keep generating the employment gains.
- Nigel Gault, economist, IHS Global Insight

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COMMENTS
Showing 3 of 21 comments
Carpediem4U
Oct 6, 2009 5:48 AM CDT
True that LJ! I get so sick of these "tax cuts this and tax cuts that" bullcrap! It's all they have and yet it's never enough. You will not get that guy to answer your question about all the tax cuts corporate already get and forget about him being able to back up any thing he says from the CBO because one look n the past will only prove that tax cuts never work as they were implied. If tax cuts were the silver bullet "timeandagain" makes them out to be then there would be factories still opened, CEO pay wouldnt be a 500 to 1 ratio, as the rest of the worlds CEO sit at about 42 to 1. He wont explain why the banks were bailed out but not the workers. He cannot provide data that minimum wage has created a single solitary factory closing because no one lives on minimum wage , no factories pay that wage, I bet even he doesnt want to live on a "minimum wage". Typical attacking of the least likely to have any real effect on the economy as a whole. Talk about a shallow pool of thought there "Stabilize minimum wage and lower the corporate tax rate... real simple solution".....yes...real simple and simply stupid!
LiberalJesus
Oct 6, 2009 5:34 AM CDT
And lower the corporate tax rates..why? We did that under Reagan, under Clinton and under Bush and what did corporate do, closed factories and reopened them in other countries (China Mexico) and made record profits and paid record salaries to CEO who closed these factories and took your tax breaks as well. Your trickle down theory proved to be nothing but a bust and even those from the Reagan administration admited as much in books and interviews later in the administration and over the years since. Minimum wage has been stagnant for 20 years until just recently. Your solutions are nothing but usual bunk. Simple solutions are never as simple as one says. Would you like to blame the banks gambling on risky investment borne out of excessive greed on "too little tax cuts and too much minimum wage"..go for it. But provide data to back up your claims. I will provide quotes and data from Dean Stockton, who was Reagan's chief economic advisor who pushed trickle down in the 80's and said it was but a political conservative scheme and nothing else...and the stats that followed since that hogwash theory all but bear that out. Lower corporate taxes...my god...what a worn out idea that is!
LiberalJesus
Oct 6, 2009 5:18 AM CDT
That was just a stupid comment Zero and zero sums it up. Now you conservatives are going to to and rewrite the last 8 years? No wonder no one but the basest of the base takes the conservatives and gop seriously anymore. How can we.... when you live in a world where 'it's all Obama's fault" and Bush and the gop were great stewards of this country before you libs took over" If you're not smoking crack, you should be because your posts leave little doubt of your mental connection to reality on the ground.

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