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2010 a Toss-Up as Indies Flee the Dems

But trend and dismal 21% approval of Congress could spell Dem's demise

By Harry Kimball,  Newser Staff

Posted Oct 7, 2009 10:03 AM CDT

(Newser) – The sizable lead among registered voters Democrats have maintained since the 2006 midterm elections has eroded to almost nothing. In the latest Gallup poll, Dems have just a 2-point advantage over Republicans going into the 2010 midterms, 46% to 44%, well within the sampling error. That’s down from a 6-point lead in July, due mostly to a decrease in support from independents.

The erosion of independent support is particularly striking. Ahead of the presidential election, 46% went for Dems compared to 39% for GOP candidates. In July, the numbers were 42%-43%; in October, 36%-45%. If that trend isn’t enough to spook Democratic office seekers, Congress as a whole has a dismal 21% approval rating, usually a harbinger of significant losses for the majority party. Sub-30% approval numbers preceded both the GOP takeover in 1994 and the Democratic win in 2006.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of Calif. could see her position change radically come November 2010, according to the Gallup poll.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of Calif. could see her position change radically come November 2010, according to the Gallup poll.   (AP Photo)
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, of Nev., is up for reelection in 2010.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, of Nev., is up for reelection in 2010.   (AP Photo)
A view of the West Front of the Capitol building in Washington.
A view of the West Front of the Capitol building in Washington.   (AP Photo)
Washington, DC.
Washington, DC.   (AP Photo)
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COMMENTS
Showing 3 of 29 comments
carpenocturne
Oct 7, 2009 8:53 AM CDT
For those bitching about how invalid and biased Gallup is, take a look at some others: http://www.realclearpolitics.c... Not all that different.... So get over it and get to work!
carpenocturne
Oct 7, 2009 8:50 AM CDT
By the way, LovinLife, realclearpolitics indicates that the split is 40.3 for repubs and 42.8 for dems. That's a 2.5% difference, and still within the error of margin. I bet you think they're biased now too, huh?
carpenocturne
Oct 7, 2009 8:49 AM CDT
LovinLife, denial is hard, isn't it? @Nick are you serious? Bush=republicans? I bet you think you're a real open guy, and believes generalizing is wrong.. unless of course they don't agree, then its all BURN THEM AT THE STAKE. Wake up, hypocrite, if you want to be 'enlightened' try treating EVERYONE equally.

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