Why the Dems Will Hold Congress in 2010

Incumbency, early preparation make 1994 redux unlikely

By Jason Farago, Newser Staff

Posted Oct 8, 2009 7:12 AM CDT

(Newser) – The last time a young Democrat became president, an angry debate over health care preceded a disastrous midterm election, costing the party control of both the House and the Senate. Yet it's too soon to make the easy comparison between 1994 and 2010, writes Wall Street Journal analyst Jerry Seib. Barack Obama still has higher approval ratings than Bill Clinton, and unlike in '94, "Democratic leaders have warned lawmakers earlier this time to start preparing for a tough fight."

To wrest back control, Republicans need to win 41 seats in the House and 11 in the Senate, far more than the average swing in a midterm election. What's more, only a handful of House Dems are retiring, giving the party the advantage of incumbency—and in the Senate, seven Republicans are bailing, five of them in swing states. The outcome of the health debate remains critical, but barring a huge reversal, Nancy Pelosi should retain the gavel into the next Congress, Seib predicts.

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Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi speak outside the West Wing of the White House following a meeting with President Barack Obama. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of Calif. gestures during an announcement on Capitol Hill in Washington, Friday, Oct. 2, 2009. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of Calif. smiles on Capitol Hill in Washington, Friday, July 17, 2009, during a news conference on health care reform. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

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The election is still a year away and pressing issues such as the health overhaul, the lagging economy and the future of the Afghan war could tip the balance. Yet a full repeat of 1994 is unlikely. - Gerald F. Seib

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Why the Dems Will Hold Congress in 2010