Why Post Poll Matters —and Why It Doesn't

Polling inaccuracies might surprise us today

(NEWSER) - We keep hearing doom and gloom for the Democrats, and there’s a good chance that’s accurate, writes Nate Silver in the New York Times . But thanks to a few potential polling flaws, things could turn out differently; the Dems might even hang onto the House. Here’s why:

1. Polls often skip cell-phone-only voters—Some 25% of adults don’t use landlines at all, and their demographics lean Democratic.

You're raising expectations way too high

(NEWSER) - Ann Coulter lays off the left for once and instead turns her fire on the right: Republicans are raising such "sky-high expectations" for the midterms that even if they do well, "it will look like a defeat," she writes at Human Events . "John Boehner is ludicrously predicting Republicans will pick up 100 seats in the House in November. Newt Gingrich puts the figure at an equally insane (and weirdly precise) 78." More»

More than half of America feels 'anti-incumbent'

(NEWSER) - There’s more bad news for Democrats in the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll , which shows that the once-decimated Republicans have essentially evened the playing field. More than 70% gave Congress a failing grade, with almost half saying they felt “anti-incumbent” to just more than a third feeling “pro-incumbent.” Asked how they’d vote in November, respondents were evenly split, with each party getting 46%; a few months ago, Democrats had a 51% to 39% advantage. More»

Last-resort state-run plans gain 76% backing

(NEWSER) - A majority of Americans, 57%, support including a public option in health care reform legislation, according to a newly released poll. The public option had the backing of just 52% in a mid-August survey. Forty percent of respondents oppose the public option. And giving people who have no affordable alternatives access to programs run by individual states has the support of a whopping 76% in the Washington Post/ABC News poll. More»