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MONDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2009
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 ANALYSIS 
55

You Betcha: Palin Won't Run

She has nothing to gain, and no hope of victory

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(Newser) – Tom Schaller is so sure that Sarah Palin won’t run in 2012, and wouldn’t be nominated if she did, that he’s made a bet on it with fellow FiveThirtyEight.com writer Nate Silver. Schaller’s argument, in a nutshell, is that short of winning the presidency or at least the nomination, Palin has little to gain—and she probably won’t win, either.

Unseating an incumbent president is notoriously tough, but Palin probably wouldn’t even get that far. She’s currently trailing in the polls, without a demographic base; Mitt Romney trounces her among moderates; Mike Huckabee amongst conservatives. Besides, she’s already a celebrity with a best-selling book, and she resigned so early that that might be all she wants. “The opportunity costs of running seem higher than not running,” concludes Schaller. “Methinks she will play stay-at-home hockey-mom in 2012.”

Republican vice presidential candidate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin speaks to a crowd during a rally at the Missouri statehouse in Jefferson City, Mo. Monday, Nov. 3, 2008.
Republican vice presidential candidate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin speaks to a crowd during a rally at the Missouri statehouse in Jefferson City, Mo. Monday, Nov. 3, 2008.   (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
Republican vice presidential candidate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin speaks to supporters during a rally, Monday, Nov. 3, 2008, in Dubuque, Iowa.
Republican vice presidential candidate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin speaks to supporters during a rally, Monday, Nov. 3, 2008, in Dubuque, Iowa.   (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
Republican vice presidential candidate, Alaska Sarah Palin wraps up her speech at a campaign stop at the airport in Colorado Springs, Colo., Monday, Nov. 3, 2008.
Republican vice presidential candidate, Alaska Sarah Palin wraps up her speech at a campaign stop at the airport in Colorado Springs, Colo., Monday, Nov. 3, 2008.   (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
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55 comments
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godawgs
Oct 21, 09 12:42 PM CDT
good, she doesn't bring a serious candidate to the republican party. If she is going to try and run let her go now against President Obama. the beating might be bad enough that she will quite trying to divide the Republican party and we can have a serious candidate in 2016. Reply
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+9
IN RESPONSE:
dontlikeyou
Oct 21, 09 12:56 PM CDT
LOL. A liberal blogger is betting Sarah Palin won't run and this is news? LOL!
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-7
IN RESPONSE:
Fondue
Oct 21, 09 1:01 PM CDT
You can always hit up FoxSkews, DLY.
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+5
IN RESPONSE:
kokuaguy
Oct 21, 09 1:22 PM CDT
Those are the reasons she won't run. Anyone who thinks she's stupid is naive. She knows that If she stays out and supports the ticket in 2012 she can perhaps transform herself into a serious candidate by 2016.
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-2
IN RESPONSE:
hamsammichs
Oct 21, 09 2:35 PM CDT
FoxSkews! That's so fresh! Because FoxNews is the only biased news outlet! On subject though, thank God Palin won't even be considered. The Republicans really wouldn't have a chance then.
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+7
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