Tom Schaller is so sure that Sarah Palin won’t run in 2012, and wouldn’t be nominated if she did, that he’s made a bet on it with fellow FiveThirtyEight.com writer Nate Silver. Schaller’s argument, in a nutshell, is that short of winning the presidency or at least the nomination, Palin has little to gain—and she probably won’t win, either.
Unseating an incumbent president is notoriously tough, but Palin probably wouldn’t even get that far. She’s currently trailing in the polls, without a demographic base; Mitt Romney trounces her among moderates; Mike Huckabee amongst conservatives. Besides, she’s already a celebrity with a best-selling book, and she resigned so early that that might be all she wants. “The opportunity costs of running seem higher than not running,” concludes Schaller. “Methinks she will play stay-at-home hockey-mom in 2012.”