City-Focused Afghan Plan Winning Support

Occupation has often led to long-term stability: the British and Soviet empires of the 19th and 20th century respectively being the most recent examples. But the US is very squeamish about being an empire, and Afghanistan would be an unlikely part of our imperial ambitions if we had them. This latest plan is doomed to fail, for the reasons you site, especially the fact that there has been no stability in Afghanistan for them to return to. It doesn't mean, however, that we can't achieve our objective in Afghanistan (which I will take the Administration at its word is "to prevent the return of Al Qaeda"). But we have to stop trying to impose our idea of a central government driven "democracy" on a country that has never operated in that way. Obama and his advisers need to explore ways to achieve relative stasis within a dynamic (but rarely random) state of chaos. It's all right if Afghanistan reverts to being a fragmented and shifting amalgam of competing interests, as long as the condition doesn't provide a medium for Al Qaeda to thrive. But that would take a profound shift in perspective that is unlikely to come from the dinosaurs who advise Obama on foreign policy.

Good points well made Roger - one thing I am thinking though is that in terms of historical precedent - much like Germany pre WW1, the current generation of Afghans maybe so accustomed to tribal, feudal and the sharp end of being 'ruled' that much the same way elements of Germany became enamoured with the authoritarian disposition of National Socialism, a significant proportion of Afghans will remain under the spell of the Taliban until a newly educated and empowered generation is allowed access to the mechanisms of power. Therefore the emphasis has to be on education, empowerment and as a consequence - 'deprogramming'.