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Deeds Has No Shot in Virginia Governor's Race

GOP turnout likely to steamroll Democratic candidate

By Nick McMaster,  Newser Staff

Posted Oct 28, 2009 3:44 PM CDT

(Newser) – Democrat Creigh Deeds has “virtually no chance” in the Virginia governor's race next week against Republican Bob McDonnell, writes Nate Silver. Polls not only have McDonnell up 11 points or so, they show that Republicans are more likely to turn out despite being outnumbered among registered voters. In other words, Virginia Republicans are fired up, and not about to let a liberal get elected.

Silver blames this mostly on the national political environment and the difficulty of any candidate whose name isn’t Barack Obama to compel big turnout from Dems—especially African-Americans. "That said, Deeds can probably be blamed for his failure to find a good affirmative message," writes Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com. "And—let's face it—he's not the most commanding presence." Either way, Deeds is history. Silver gives him 60-1 odds, making a victory "an upset of Hillary-in-New Hampshire proportions."

Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell, left, gestures as  Democratic opponent State Sen. Creigh Deeds, listens during  a July debate.
Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell, left, gestures as Democratic opponent State Sen. Creigh Deeds, listens during a July debate.   (AP Photo/Steve Helber)
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds, center, speaks to a group of nearly 100 women about his opponent Bob McDonnell's anti-abortion record, in Annandale, Va. on Monday, Aug. 10, 2009.
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds, center, speaks to a group of nearly 100 women about his opponent Bob McDonnell's anti-abortion record, in Annandale, Va. on Monday, Aug. 10, 2009.   (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)
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COMMENTS
Showing 3 of 23 comments
AdaptAndOvercome
Oct 29, 2009 6:30 AM CDT
dontlikeyou, you are such a ney sayer. Obama has kept this country from going spiraling out of control. If McCain had been President he would have kept the same policies as Bush and we'd all be lined up at soup kitchens, crimes would escalate and people like you would still be bitching and complaining. You are so bitter.
NewserScooter
Oct 29, 2009 4:49 AM CDT
That will be next NOV. To be certain the tide will move at least a little. If health care passes, it will be a Rep. Congress in 2011. A 500 billion cut in Medicare will bring out all the 50+ folks against the folks who voted for it, unless it changes much.
Face-Of-RNC
Oct 29, 2009 4:33 AM CDT
ihateeveryone - you're a scintillating spokesman for the bumpkin rednecks who spawned you.

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