Democrat Creigh Deeds has “virtually no chance” in the Virginia governor's race next week against Republican Bob McDonnell, writes Nate Silver. Polls not only have McDonnell up 11 points or so, they show that Republicans are more likely to turn out despite being outnumbered among registered voters. In other words, Virginia Republicans are fired up, and not about to let a liberal get elected.
Silver blames this mostly on the national political environment and the difficulty of any candidate whose name isn’t Barack Obama to compel big turnout from Dems—especially African-Americans. "That said, Deeds can probably be blamed for his failure to find a good affirmative message," writes Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com. "And—let's face it—he's not the most commanding presence." Either way, Deeds is history. Silver gives him 60-1 odds, making a victory "an upset of Hillary-in-New Hampshire proportions."