US GDP Jump Hollow if Unemployment Keeps Rising

Forecast fastest expansion in years on consumer spending

(NEWSER) - Economists are growing more optimistic about this year’s climate, predicting it will expand at its fastest pace since 2003, the Wall Street Journal reports. The paper polled 51 economists. Among the highlights:

• Economists see only a 12% risk of returning to recession, compared to 22% in September.
• In the 4th quarter of 2011, economists expect GDP to be 3.5% higher than a year before—beating last month’s prediction of a 3.3% increase.

Uncertainty is the 'new normal' in America

(NEWSER) - For many Americans, "recovery" feels a lot like recession—and it may take a decade for that to change, finds the New York Times . At the current rate of job creation, for instance, it would take nine years to recapture jobs lost thus far. Home prices, meanwhile, are down 20% since 2005; even assuming 2% inflation, it would take 13 years for the market to reach pre-crisis levels. Everywhere, offices sit empty. More»

Tell that to the unemployed, who are likely to stay that way for years

(NEWSER) - Break out the champagne: The recession is over! In fact, it’s been over since June 2009, according to a new report from the National Bureau of Economic Research, an unofficial group that marks the start and end of such economic events. Things may not be great, the committee concluded, but ever since last summer they have been headed in the right direction—real GDP in the second quarter of this year was up 3.1% from last year, the Wall Street Journal reports. More»

Recession left 'gaping wounds' says IMF head

(NEWSER) - To those who think the worst of the recession is over, the head of the IMF has this to say: "We are not safe." An astounding 30 million jobs have been lost since the beginning of the financial crisis , three-quarters of those in richer economies, a new report shows. This "wasteland of unemployment," now at 210 million worldwide, puts both the United States and Europe at serious risk of a social revolt, says the IMF's Dominique Strauss-Kahn . More»

State budget cuts are wiping out the effects of the stimulus

(NEWSER) - The success of the Obama stimulus in creating jobs has been broadly, and furiously, debated—and will continue to be as the election season nears. But Ezra Klein argues today that in the end it's the "anti-stimulus"—the massive constriction of state budgets—that will decide our economic fate. Budget gaps in 46 states have led them to slash jobs and/or raise taxes, overwhelming the effect of the stimulus. "In an effort to do right by the numbers, they're doing wrong by the economy." More»