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Blame Weak Candidates, Not Obama

Polling guru gives a post-mortem on last night's elections

By Kevin Spak, Newser Staff

Posted Nov 4, 2009 8:36 AM CST

(Newser) – The numbers are in, now it's time to make sense of them. Nate Silver breaks down last night's election results:

Don’t blame Obama; Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine were probably just weak candidates. In New Jersey, 57% of voters approved of Obama, but 27% of those supporters voted Republican anyway. In Virginia 20% of those who approved of Obama voted GOP.
Democrats had turnout problems in Virginia; the voters who came out last night supported McCain 51-43 in 2008, a mirror image of that year's margin.

Bill Owens’ win is “a reminder that all politics is local (sometimes).” Doug Hoffman’s support mostly came from outside the district, but he was too conservative for the center-right NY-23.
Gay marriage loses in Maine, thanks to an urban-rural divide, a factor Silver says should be considered in addition to a state's religiosity. The enthusiasm gap is closing on the issue, but it's still getting the right out of the house and to the polls.
Mike Bloomberg’s win was really narrow, despite voters approving of his performance 70-29. Why? Because 58% said his decision to extend his term limit influenced their vote.

Republican Gov-elect Bob McDonnell, left, and Lt. Gov-elect, Bill Bolling wave to the crowd during their victory party in Richmond, Va., Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2009. (AP Photo/Steve Helber)

Yes on 1 supporters celebrate their victory in Maine. Despite Portland voters opposing the anti-gay-marriage referendum by a 2:1 margin, rural voters pushed it through, 52-48. (AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty)

Republican Chris Christie unseated incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2009 in Parsippany, New Jersey. (AP Photo/Henny Ray Abrams)

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COMMENTS

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Showing 3 of 22 comments

Enoughie

Nov 4, 2009 11:48 AM CST

You have to be a real brilliant political spinster to call Dem candidates "weak." Based on what? On the fact that they lost? Oh yea, Corzine was such a weak candidate, if only the Dems could pick someone who had a chance of becoming a governor... Oh, I don't know.. maybe someone who WAS the governor aleady...

Doctor-Zaius

Nov 4, 2009 7:49 AM CST

Perhaps, perhaps not.

ronimaca

Nov 4, 2009 7:36 AM CST

wow the GOP whiners are out in force today. Like I said before look at the f-ing exit polls. You just can't help yourselves. Dem winning in the 23rd is the big story you righties know it. Beck, Limpballs, and Winky Palin were wrong they supported the conservative and stab Dede in the back. hahahahahahahahah

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gay marriage • New York City • Jon Corzine • New Jersey • New York • Michael Bloomberg • Virginia • exit polls • election • poll numbers • Nate Silver • Creigh Deeds • Christopher Christie • Bob McDonnell • Doug Hoffman • Bill Owens • Election 09 • election day November 2009

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Blame Weak Candidates, Not Obama

Polling guru gives a post-mortem on last night's elections

OTHER STORIES ON OUR RADAR

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More Newser Stories

Tuesday Proves Obama Victory Was a Fluke

Reports of a great liberal realignment are greatly exaggerated

Voters Now a Rampaging Herd

Get ready for a permanent tea party as voters seek leaders

Sorry, Dems, 2008 Is So Last Year

Winning coalition doesn't reemerge in gubernatorial races

Christie Takes NJ for GOP

First Republican to win a statewide race in a decade

Obama Is Minimal Factor in NJ, Va., Exit Polls Show

Majorities say president has no influence on vote

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Blame Weak Candidates, Not Obama

Polling guru gives a post-mortem on last night's elections

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OTHER STORIES ON OUR RADAR

MOST POPULAR STORIES

[ By Views ]

[ By Comments ]

More Newser Stories

Tuesday Proves Obama Victory Was a Fluke

Reports of a great liberal realignment are greatly exaggerated

Voters Now a Rampaging Herd

Get ready for a permanent tea party as voters seek leaders

Sorry, Dems, 2008 Is So Last Year

Winning coalition doesn't reemerge in gubernatorial races

Christie Takes NJ for GOP

First Republican to win a statewide race in a decade

Obama Is Minimal Factor in NJ, Va., Exit Polls Show

Majorities say president has no influence on vote

About Us

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Newser By Users

Community

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What is Newser?