Dems Torn: Too Much Change, or Not Enough?

She'll be minority leader, he'll be speaker

(NEWSER) - Nancy Pelosi won the position of House minority leader today, but her uphill battle to retain a leadership role revealed a fierce split within the Democratic party, Politico reports. The vote (150-43) was far from unanimous, with the opposition holding Pelosi responsible for Democrats' crushing defeat in the midterms. "She is the face that defeated us in this last election," summed up Allen Boyd, a defeated Florida Democrat. On the other side of the aisle, Republicans, as expected, unanimously elected John Boehner to fill her role as House speaker. More details on that vote here . More»

Polling inaccuracies might surprise us today

(NEWSER) - We keep hearing doom and gloom for the Democrats, and there’s a good chance that’s accurate, writes Nate Silver in the New York Times . But thanks to a few potential polling flaws, things could turn out differently; the Dems might even hang onto the House. Here’s why:

1. Polls often skip cell-phone-only voters—Some 25% of adults don’t use landlines at all, and their demographics lean Democratic.

Alan Grayson, Tom Perriello, Joseph Cao among those fighting for their job

(NEWSER) - Polling guru Nate Silver used his highly sophisticated model to predict that the GOP could pick up anywhere from 23 to 81 seats . They need to pick up 39 in order to grab a 218-vote House majority. We boiled it down to the 9 that you should keep an eye on:

1. Indiana's 2nd District: Rep. Joe Donnelly has been distancing himself from the White House and Pelosi. The tactic seems to be working in his conservative district; he's leading in the polls against Republican Jackie Walorski. If things turn, watch out: It's going to be a long night for the Dems.
2. Virginia's 5th District: Conversely, Rep. Tom Perriello has been unwavering in his defense of health reform, etc ... Obama has plugged him several times in recent days, but his purple district is leaning toward Republican John Hurt.

Senators quietly maneuvering to move in if leader goes down

(NEWSER) - Capitol Hill housemates Charles Schumer and Richard Durbin are likely to end up fighting over a lot more than the breakfast cereal if Harry Reid loses his re-election battle. The senators from New York and Illinois, Reid's top two deputies, are subtly building support for bids to become majority leader—while publicly throwing their full support behind Reid, the New York Times reports. Schumer has donated $500,000 to the Nevada Democratic Party and Durbin has kicked in $50,000. More»

Women, Catholics, independents now favoring GOP

(NEWSER) - Key groups of voters who helped President Obama win in 2008 and delivered Congress to the Democrats in 2006 are favoring the GOP this time around, a New York Times /CBS poll finds. Women, Catholics, less affluent voters, and independents are all leaning Republican, the poll finds. Women are set to choose Republicans over Democrats in House races for the first time since polls started tracking voting demographics in 1982. More»