Q3 GDP Growth More Like 2.8% Than 3.5%

Forecast fastest expansion in years on consumer spending

(NEWSER) - Economists are growing more optimistic about this year’s climate, predicting it will expand at its fastest pace since 2003, the Wall Street Journal reports. The paper polled 51 economists. Among the highlights:

• Economists see only a 12% risk of returning to recession, compared to 22% in September.
• In the 4th quarter of 2011, economists expect GDP to be 3.5% higher than a year before—beating last month’s prediction of a 3.3% increase.

... and it's still rising faster than before recession

(NEWSER) - News that the US gross domestic product jumped 3.5% in the third quarter cheered investors and others, but the cheers will ring hollow if unemployment keeps rising, John Authers writes. Consumer spending rose even as disposable income fell—“ not a pattern that can be sustained for long, and it is inconsistent with the need for US families to pay down their debts,” he notes in the Financial Times. More»

Tell that to the unemployed, who are likely to stay that way for years

(NEWSER) - Break out the champagne: The recession is over! In fact, it’s been over since June 2009, according to a new report from the National Bureau of Economic Research, an unofficial group that marks the start and end of such economic events. Things may not be great, the committee concluded, but ever since last summer they have been headed in the right direction—real GDP in the second quarter of this year was up 3.1% from last year, the Wall Street Journal reports. More»

Worse than anticipated

(AP) - The US economy contracted at a staggering 6.2% pace at the end of 2008, the worst showing in more than a quarter-century, as consumers and businesses ratcheted back spending, plunging the country deeper into recession. That's drastically worse than the 3.8% the government originally estimated, and the 5.4% economists predicted. Looking ahead, economists predict consumers and businesses will keep cutting back spending, making the first six months of this year especially rocky. More»

What happened to the recession?

(NEWSER) - The US Gross Domestic Product rose at a 0.6% annual pace in the first quarter, despite the widespread belief that the economy is in recession, Bloomberg reports. The number stayed positive thanks to a surge in inventories, which offset flagging consumer spending and business investment. “We think we're in recession, but I don't know that the GDP numbers are going to turn negative at all in 2008,” said one economist. More»