GOP Won't Win Kennedy Seat—But It'll Be Close
Loss of 'Bush shield' will rattle Dems
By Rob Quinn,  Newser Staff
Posted Jan 6, 2010 4:14 AM CST
Republican candidate Scott Brown, Democratic candidate Martha Coakley, and Libertarian Joseph L. Kennedy wait for the start of a radio debate in Boston yesterday.   (AP Photo/Bizuayehu Tesfaye)
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(Newser) – The Republicans won't be able to pull off a stunning upset in the Massachusetts special election for Ted Kennedy's Senate seat, but it'll be close enough to scare Democrats, predicts Steve Kornacki. State attorney General Martha Coakley should be able to muster enough resources to narrowly fend off challenger Scott Cook, leaving the Democrats chastened but with their 60 votes intact, Kornacki writes at Faster Times.

The race will be tighter than Democrats expected because of the loss of the "Gingrich-Bush" shield that protected the party in Massachusetts from 1994 until 2008, Kornacki notes. With George Bush gone, the state's voters are now a lot more inclined to listen to Republican candidates, and to consider voting for them as a protest against the Democrats. The Dems have lost that shield all over the country, Kornacki notes, and the new dynamic will loom large in this year's election.

 

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