GOP Has Decent Chance of Taking the House

2010 shaping up to be a wave election
By Kevin Spak,  Newser Staff
Posted Jan 19, 2010 1:24 PM CST
Updated Jan 19, 2010 1:45 PM CST
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer meet with reporters on Capitol Hill, Jan. 15, 2010.   (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

(Newser) – Win or lose, Scott Brown’s Massachusetts race proves that all bets are off for November’s elections, which could see a wave so powerful that Republicans take control of the House. Though conventional wisdom holds that Democrats will lose seats but keep the helm, Sean Trende of RealClearPolitics figures Republicans have a roughly one-in-three chance of taking over. There aren’t many open seats for them, but incumbency doesn’t always matter in wave elections.

Many of the incumbent Democrats aren’t very strong incumbents, either. Of the 73 Democrats in Republican-leaning districts, a whopping 40 are still in their first or second term. Many of them are now polling abysmally. Republicans also lead in almost every generic party House poll. "If forecasting elections at this point is like forecasting where a hurricane will run aground ... right now a perfect storm is brewing and a GOP takeover of the House is well within it potentially projected path."

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