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Scott Brown Changes the Senate Math

Moderate GOP votes up for grabs mean 56 could be Dems' new 60

By Rob Quinn,  Newser Staff

Posted Feb 23, 2010 5:41 AM CST | Updated Feb 23, 2010 7:56 AM CST

(Newser) – Yesterday's Senate vote to end debate on the jobs bill showed that losing the supermajority may not be such a disaster for the Democrats after all, writes Nate Silver. Scott Brown joined four other moderate Republicans in voting to end a filibuster on Harry Reid's jobs bill, suggesting that a bipartisan outcome is possible even when a bipartisan process is abandoned—as happened with yesterday's bill, Silver writes at FiveThirtyEight.

Two of the five Republicans who voted for cloture are stepping down this year, Silver writes, but moderate Republican Mike Castle from Delaware will likely be joining Brown, Olympia Snowe, and Susan Collins next January. If the Democrats can manage to hold onto 56 seats in the new Senate—a big if, Silver notes—then they should find that four-vote GOP block will be up for grabs on almost any issue.

Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass. arrives for a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Thursday, Feb. 4, 2010, after being sworn-in by Vice President Joe Biden.
Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass. arrives for a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Thursday, Feb. 4, 2010, after being sworn-in by Vice President Joe Biden.   (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)
Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., talks to reporters after he voted for cloture on the Jobs Bill on Capitol Hill in Washington, Monday, Feb. 22, 2010.
Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., talks to reporters after he voted for cloture on the Jobs Bill on Capitol Hill in Washington, Monday, Feb. 22, 2010.   (AP Photo/Harry Hamburg)
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I can't help but wonder if someone like an Olympia Snowe is going to be more inclined at the margins to support Democratic pieces of legislation when she knows they can't pass without her support. - Nate Silver

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My TakeCLICK BELOW TO VOTE
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COMMENTS
Showing 3 of 21 comments
FearAndLoath838
Feb 23, 2010 10:51 PM CST
OF COURSE, Brown voted for the Jobs Bill. The state that just elected him is dead last in employment...
ende
Feb 23, 2010 10:04 PM CST
I think this is a bit of wishful thinking on the part of the author. On the other hand, I agree that non-supermajorities are probably more productive, despite misconceptions.
bahari@bellsouth.net
Feb 23, 2010 9:13 PM CST
DLY please take your medicine. I know that you can be intelligent sometimes, but you MUST stay on your meds.
 

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