Odds of Health Care Bill Passing About 50-50

Nate Silver isn't quite ready to place his bet with InTrade
By John Johnson,  Newser Staff
Posted Mar 5, 2010 7:03 AM CST
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.   (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

(Newser) – Nate Silver notes that the folks at InTrade now say the smart money is on President Obama getting his health care bill through Congress. They put the chances at 52%, a significant jump in just the last few days. Silver agrees the odds have improved from a "post- Masspocalypse" low of 25% to 30%, but after running through all the pros (Obama's "all-in") and cons (Bart Stupak isn't budging on abortion), he's keeping his seat squarely on the fence.

"My head says yes—Pelosi will squeak this through—while my gut frankly says no. Either way, I'm not sure there's a lot of arbitrage against that 52% number at Intrade, but I'd hesitate to call the bill a favorite to pass," he writes at FiveThirtyEight.com.

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