Why Obama's Still the Fave for 2012

Incumbency carries plenty of advantages
By Will McCahill,  Newser Staff
Posted Mar 8, 2010 9:59 PM CST

(Newser) – Sure, things look glum for President Obama, but he’s still the odds-on favorite to win the 2012 presidential election. Carl Cannon tells us why:

  • A “generic Republican” doesn’t exist. Obama trails that very thing by double digits in a recent poll, but the GOP nominee will bring his or her own baggage.
  • There might be more than two candidates. Lou Dobbs? Glenn Beck? There’s a lot of rumbling out there about third-party runs.

  • Obama’s already president. Yes, anti-incumbent fervor is sweeping the nation, Cannon writes for Politics Daily, but Obama’s got the bully pulpit, and 2 more years.
  • Bad mid-term results could set Obama free of Pelosi et al. Recent history: “The GOP takeover in 1994-95 actually enhanced Clinton’s political prospects.”
  • The youth vote. Yes, he’s less popular with under-30s, but still packs a punch—and that’ll improve if the economy does.
  • Bad news can’t last forever. The economy will turn around eventually, and that’ll boost Obama’s chances.

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