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Why Obama's Still the Fave for 2012

Incumbency carries plenty of advantages

By Will McCahill,  Newser Staff

Posted Mar 8, 2010 9:59 PM CST

(Newser) – Sure, things look glum for President Obama, but he’s still the odds-on favorite to win the 2012 presidential election. Carl Cannon tells us why:

  • A “generic Republican” doesn’t exist. Obama trails that very thing by double digits in a recent poll, but the GOP nominee will bring his or her own baggage.
  • There might be more than two candidates. Lou Dobbs? Glenn Beck? There’s a lot of rumbling out there about third-party runs.

  • Obama’s already president. Yes, anti-incumbent fervor is sweeping the nation, Cannon writes for Politics Daily, but Obama’s got the bully pulpit, and 2 more years.
  • Bad mid-term results could set Obama free of Pelosi et al. Recent history: “The GOP takeover in 1994-95 actually enhanced Clinton’s political prospects.”
  • The youth vote. Yes, he’s less popular with under-30s, but still packs a punch—and that’ll improve if the economy does.
  • Bad news can’t last forever. The economy will turn around eventually, and that’ll boost Obama’s chances.

President Barack Obama speaks about health care reform in Glenside, Pa., today.
President Barack Obama speaks about health care reform in Glenside, Pa., today.   (AP Photo)
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President Obama's health-reform speech today.   (WCAU-TV)

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COMMENTS
Showing 3 of 64 comments
tomodachi
Mar 9, 2010 9:33 PM CST
For those of you who say the still faltering economy will be obama's undoing... history says you might be wrong.

And if you're saying that Obama should have cut taxes to fix the economy... you're wrong there too.


(clipped from article) http://spedr.com/2l34j

On taking office in January, 1981, Ronald Reagan, like Obama, inherited an economy in a downward spiral, not quite as bad as today's but close enough. The Gipper slashed corporate and individual tax rates to boost the economy and, in his sunny style, predicted not only a recovery, but a balanced budget. Didn't happen, at least not as fast as he forecast. Didn't come close. By November, 1982, unemployment reached slightly more than 10 percent -- higher than today's -- with 9 million-plus out of work, the most since the Great Depression. Business failures reached 17,000 that year, the second highest since the 1930s. The public, which had given Reagan a landslide presidential victory, lost patience, as it almost always does. In that year's midterm elections, Republicans lost 27 seats to the Democrats.

And by January, Reagan's approval rating had plummeted to 35 percent. As a re-election candidate, the smart money said, the Gipper was a dead-man walking. We all know that didn't happened. The economy, as it usually does, recovered, as it probably will for Obama. But it took almost two years for the Reagan recovery to arrive -- as it likely will with Obama. Reagan, the object of national rejection in early1983 won a massive re-election victory in 1984.
DontLikeYou___
Mar 9, 2010 4:38 PM CST
Lefties, did this article cheer you up? Good. It's been hard watching your glum faces for the past 4 months.
DontLikeYou___
Mar 9, 2010 12:41 PM CST
This is one of those pieces that has no intrinsic value to anyone unless you worship Obama. It is meant to cheer you up and keep you thinking that all is well all the while this ignorant man dismantles the democrat party and banishes it to obscurity for 30 years.

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