New polling shows record enthusiasm for the midterm elections, particularly among Republican voters. Among Democrats, 57% are “more enthusiastic than usual” about November, the highest percentage Gallup has ever recorded for them in a midterm. The problem? Republicans stand at a whopping 69%. This is obviously not great news for Democrats, writes Nate Silver, but not quite as bad as it appears.
For starters, the polls show Democrats don't have a problem with their base. And while there's a 12-point gap in enthusiasm between parties, Silver measures something called the "enthusiasm ratio" and finds it to be smaller than it was in 1994. Still, this is small comfort, he writes at FiveThirtyEight. "The data, for the time being, tells a pretty consistent story: the Democrats are in deep trouble.... And 'almost as bad as 1994, but not quite!' is not exactly a rosy scenario for them."