Republicans Reeling From Rash of Retirements

Republicans need a net gain of 3 seats, and 5 Dem-held seats are toss-ups

(NEWSER) - Thanks in part to a rash of Democrats retiring from the Senate , things are looking pretty good for the Republicans in 2012. In the first edition of its 2012 race ratings, The Hill places five seats currently held by Democrats in the “toss-up” column—and Republicans only need a net gain of three seats to win control. Three of those toss-ups are due to retirements; the other two are Montana Sen. Jon Tester and Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson. More»

Polling inaccuracies might surprise us today

(NEWSER) - We keep hearing doom and gloom for the Democrats, and there’s a good chance that’s accurate, writes Nate Silver in the New York Times . But thanks to a few potential polling flaws, things could turn out differently; the Dems might even hang onto the House. Here’s why:

1. Polls often skip cell-phone-only voters—Some 25% of adults don’t use landlines at all, and their demographics lean Democratic.

Deal will probably preempt secret ballot

(NEWSER) - The sound and fury of the midterm elections may be over, but the end of electoral voting brings about a round of behind-the-scenes jockeying for power. Reps. James Clyburn and Steny Hoyer are both plausible candidates for leading the Democratic minority in the house, but given that Nancy Pelosi will keep her post (well, with "majority" changed to "minority") they've begun low-key insider campaigns for the No. 2 slot, the Wall Street Journal reports. More»

Or worse, if things go really badly

(NEWSER) - The worst-case scenarios for the Democrats in the midterm elections are bad indeed, Nate Silver warns. He cites "one reasonably well-informed translation of the generic ballot polls" that forecasts a 51-seat loss in the House if the elections were held today. It's not too late to shift the momentum, but he says people are "underestimating the magnitude of losses that might occur if momentum fails to change, or moves in the other direction." More»

Party's in 'fairly bad shape,' but there's time to rebound

(NEWSER) - A new Gallup poll shows Republicans ahead of Democrats in a generic House ballot, a reversal of political fortune from October. Is it time for the party to panic? "Maybe a little," writes Nate Silver . "My 30,000-foot view is that between the pressures of the jobs situation and the health care debate, the Democrats are in fairly bad shape. But, there's a long way to go before next year, and their situation does not seem to be quite as bad as it was in August." More»