Republicans are hoping to clean up this November, but they can pretty much forget about taking over the upper chamber, David Catanese writes for Politico. The GOP needs to gain 10 seats to take over, and they have decent odds in six or seven contests. But to pick up those last four or five votes, Republicans would need to win in virtually impervious Democratic strongholds.
Republicans are probably favored to gain seats in North Dakota, Indiana, and Delaware, where incumbents are retiring, and in Arkansas, where Blanche Lincoln’s on the ropes. They also have a fighting chance in Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Nevada. But they have little to no chance in the remaining states: Illinois, Wisconsin, Washington, and California. Even Republican Senatorial Committee head John Cornyn admits a takeover is unlikely. “I think it’s going to be a two-cycle process,” he said.