Israel Will Probably Attack Iran Within a Year 'Better than 50% chance,' says Jeffrey Goldberg By John Johnson, Newser Staff Posted Aug 11, 2010 12:58 PM CDT 88 comments Comments Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. (AP Photo/Dan Balilty) (Newser) – There's a "better than 50% chance" that Israel will bomb Iran's suspected nuclear facilities within a year, writes Jeffrey Goldberg at the Atlantic. He reached the conclusion after interviews with dozens of current and former high-ranking Israeli officials, including Benjamin Netanyahu, and doesn't think it's mere rhetoric. He lays out the most plausible scenario along with the potentially cataclysmic consequences—"it will dwarf Afghanistan in significance and complexity"—in his lengthy analysis. It's possible, of course, that Iran will be persuaded to end its nuke problem before any such strike, but Goldberg says this is more likely: "One day next spring, the Israeli national-security adviser, Uzi Arad, and the Israeli defense minister, Ehud Barak, will simultaneously telephone their counterparts at the White House and the Pentagon, to inform them that their prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has just ordered roughly one hundred F-15Es, F-16Is, F-16Cs, and other aircraft of the Israeli air force to fly east toward Iran."