GOP Likely to Control 30 Governors' Seats
National wind could boost Republicans' chances locally
By Polly Davis Doig,  Newser Staff
Posted Sep 4, 2010 9:08 AM CDT
This might be Democrats' view of 30-some givernors' mansions come November.   (AP Photo/Wichai Taprieu)
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(Newser) – Republicans are smelling blood in the November elections, and part of the bleeding is likely to come from governors' mansions across the country, writes Nate Silver over at what used to be FiveThirtyEight.com. The GOP could well end up in control of 30 governors seats—up from its current 23—with Midwestern states looking particularly vulnerable. With 37 races going on, Republicans stand an 80% chance of victory in 11 of the 24 states with no incumbent in the running.

Though noting that gubernatorial elections are usually "predominately local affairs" that can "produce counterintuitive results," Silver says that "when one party has a sufficiently strong political wind at its back, gubernatorial elections sometimes get caught up in the wave." The GOP swiped 12 seats from Democrats in its 1994 uprising, while Dems grabbed six in 2006. The fat lady hasn't yet sung, Silver writes, but "both the math and the clock are working against the Democrats."
 

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