Cellphone Users Are Missing From Polls

'04 election might have seen surge Dems are counting on; math blurs from there

(NEWSER) - Conventional wisdom has it that young people energized by Barack Obama will sweep him to victory in November. But not so fast, Paul Maslin writes on Salon. It’s possible the big youth surge already happened in 2004, when turnout among 18-to-24-year-olds jumped from 2000’s dismal 32.4% to 41.9%—even as overall turnout declined. More»

Fast-growing urban demographic handed Obama election victory

(NEWSER) - Barack Obama's strength in cities won him the election, meaning he "might be America's first urban" president, statistics whiz Nate Silver writes in Esquire. Obama's "pragmatic, superior, hip, stubborn, multicultural" ways make him unmistakably urban, Silver writes, and America's changing demographics mean that urban voters matter now more than ever. More»

(NEWSER) - Not all the polls are going in Barack Obama's favor. An AP-GfK survey says John McCain has closed the gap with Obama after the last debate by gaining voters among whites and those earning less than $50,000. The poll has the race at 44%-43% in favor of Obama, a statistical tie indicating that the "Joe the plumber" analogy resonated. The same poll placed Obama 7 points ahead of McCain three weeks ago, the AP reports. More»

New swing-state voters look like Obama backers; independents add numbers, too

(NEWSER) - With voter registration closing in many states today, it appears Barack Obama has largely succeeded in his attempt to make over the electorate, the Washington Post reports. Some 4 million new voters have registered across a dozen battleground states, with new Democrats greatly outnumbering new Republicans. In Florida, Obama has over twice as many new voters; in North Carolina, the ratio is roughly 6-1. More»

Obama's influence may last a lifetime

(NEWSER) - Barack Obama faces an easy victory—at least among voters under 30. That's the finding of a poll of young voters, who overwhelmingly prefer Obama to John McCain, 61% to 32%, reports USA Today. It's the most dramatic margin within an age group in any presidential election in modern times. The Illinois senator is also the one young voters say they would rather have a beer with or seek out for advice. More»