Pollsters: Our Predictions Could Be Off

Use of cell phones, unexpected turnout could skew results

(NEWSER) - Opinion polls can be wrong—just look at Thomas Dewey in 1948 or even Barack Obama, who led Hillary Clinton before the New Hampshire primary but lost anyway. Reuters outlines some factors that could be skewing current results:

• Turnout: Polls filter the results of phone surveys through models of who is likely to actually vote. But with turnout, especially among African-Americans, expected to set a record, “likely voter” models could be out of date.

Voters aren't overstating support for minority candidates

(NEWSER) - The so-called Bradley effect, in which support for minority candidates in opinion polls isn’t matched by votes in actual elections, has disappeared, Sam Wang writes for the Princeton Election Consortium. A study of polling and outcome data from 133 gubernatorial and senate races in 1989-2006 found that before 1996, blacks polled 3.1% higher than they finished; after that, 0.3% lower. More»

Bobby Berlin went into diabetic shock on the phone

(NEWSER) - Who says pollsters aren't good for anything? Not Bobby Berlin. The New York City woman had just gotten a call asking how she felt about Michael Bloomberg when she went into diabetic shock, NBC New York reports. "Something just sounded off," says the pollster, a Marist College student. "It was just really heavy breathing and panting." He called his supervisor, who asked if Berlin was OK. "No," Berlin replied. More»

Skinhead gets 10 years; hoped to murder dozens of minorities

(NEWSER) - A white supremacist was sentenced to 10 years in prison today for his plot to kill dozens of black people, including then-presidential candidate Barack Obama, CNN reports. Paul Schlesselman of Arkansas was arrested after threatening Obama. He later admitted he’d spent more than a month planning and acquiring weapons for a string of killings, burglaries, and robberies that would have culminated in Obama’s death. More»

Poll numbers plummeted amid Sotomayor, Gates controversies

(NEWSER) - President Obama’s downward opinion-poll trajectory among whites seems to be linked to the “blackening” of his image, writes Joan Walsh in Salon. It accelerated during two racially charged moments this summer: Sonia Sotomayor’s nomination to the Supreme Court, marked with debate over her “wise Latina” comment, and the Henry Louis Gates controversy. At such times, Walsh argues, “there's no denying, he got blacker to a segment of the white population.” More»