McCain's Down, But Not Out

What to watch for as the clock ticks on

(NEWSER) - Tonight’s election promises to end before bedtime, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be drama. Nate Silver breaks down which polls close when, and what to watch for.

• 6pm: Indiana and Kentucky: Usually these get called red right away, but this year Indiana is a toss-up.
• 7pm: Virginia, Georgia, and most of Florida and New Hampshire: We’ll get an idea how accurate polls are; Virginia is extremely important

But tightening Pennsylvania polls provide lone bright spot

(NEWSER) - John McCain is hanging by a pretty thin thread, writes statistics guru Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com, and that thread is Pennsylvania. Two polls show a slight narrowing in Keystone country; one shows Obama’s lead down to 10 points, while another, right-leaning poll puts it at 5. But with no other good news for the Arizona senator yesterday, his overall win percentage probability fell to a new nadir of 2.8%. More»

Americans reassured by "risky" candidate's cool performance

(NEWSER) - To many pundits, the debates are forgotten, a thing of the past—but it’s quite possible they are the key to Barack Obama’s dominance in the polls, writes Robert G. Kaiser in the Washington Post. Before the debates, Obama was seen as a risky unknown. But having seen his performances, “Americans find Obama more empathetic, stronger, better prepared to be president and just more sympathetic” than they did before. More»

Fraction under mistaken impression much greater than 5-10% nationally: poll

(NEWSER) - Nearly a quarter of Texas voters still believe Barack Obama is a Muslim, the Houston Chronicle reports. Polling shows 23% of registered voters there buy internet-fueled rumors the Democrat is hiding his Islamic faith—compared to just 5-10% of voters nationwide. The same poll gives John McCain a comfortable lead over Obama, at 51%- 40%. More»

... by a thinner margin than they supported fellow Dem Kerry in '04

(NEWSER) - Barack Obama has a big lead among Jewish voters, according to a survey by the American Jewish Committee. But his 57% support, to 30% for John McCain and 13% undecided, is “a bit lower than one would expect,” a group exec tells VOA News. At this time in 2004, John Kerry had 69% of the vote, which grew to 76% by Election Day. More»