GOP Braces for Big Losses

Democrats will spend recess targeting insurance companies

(NEWSER) - With the House already on break and the Senate readying for the August recess, the health care debate has moved to the court of public opinion, the New York Times reports. Both sides are launching campaign tours and waves of TV ads, with Democrats attacking the insurance industry and Republicans calling Democratic proposals expensive and ineffective. The post-August public mood is expected to reshape the debate in Washington. More»

Polling inaccuracies might surprise us today

(NEWSER) - We keep hearing doom and gloom for the Democrats, and there’s a good chance that’s accurate, writes Nate Silver in the New York Times . But thanks to a few potential polling flaws, things could turn out differently; the Dems might even hang onto the House. Here’s why:

1. Polls often skip cell-phone-only voters—Some 25% of adults don’t use landlines at all, and their demographics lean Democratic.

Democrats love his with-us-or-against-us conservatism

(NEWSER) - Jim DeMint might just be the Democrats’ secret weapon. For starters, the senator from South Carolina is making good on his declaration that he’d rather have “30 Republicans in the Senate who believe in principles of freedom than 60 who don’t,” endorsing lots of far-right candidates around the country, many of whom are unelectable. But the damage he’s doing to the party could stretch well beyond 2010, writes Stuart Rothenberg for Roll Call . More»

President's miscalculations include scale, momentum

(NEWSER) - Scott Brown’s Senate victory in Massachusetts is the final nail in the coffin of the Obama administration’s first-year political strategy, John F. Harris and Carol E. Lee write for Politico . The miscalculations cover “three major counts":

• Believing 2008 was a game-changer: The Obama team thought the "election represented something seismic." But "the assumption that Obama would be swimming mostly with the current rather than often against it on issues such as health care, financial regulation and global warming was naive in retrospect."

(NEWSER) - After 11 months licking his wounds, John McCain is getting back out there, appearing on TV more often and acting little like the man who gave a gracious, conciliatory concession speech last November. He's finding support within the GOP, where his combative approach hasn't always resonated, because his target is often the White House. "A lot of people, including me, thought he might be the Republican building bridges to the Obama administration," says an adviser. "But he's been more like the guy blowing up the bridges." More»