Polling Guru Nabs $700K Book Deal

...And a lot of spin afterward

(NEWSER) - History suggests that it doesn’t matter who actually wins tonight in Iowa—it matters who exceeds expectations, or fails to meet them. The media is always flabbergasted by strange Iowa finishes, but they shouldn’t be, writes Nate Silver of the New York Times , because thanks to unreliable polls they happen all the time, and seem especially likely this year. “A wide range of outcomes remain possible in Iowa even at this late hour,” he warns, and as you can see, his final predictions contain wide margins of error: More»

Nate Silver says Rick Santorum's voters are a lot more enthusiastic

(NEWSER) - Mitt Romney's got a big problem in his fight with Rick Santorum: His supporters are a lot less enthusiastic, observes Nate Silver of the New York Times . According to one poll, Santorum is beating Romney by 11 points among people who are definitely going to vote. Romney leads by the same margin among indefinite voters, "but those votes don't count for anything unless the candidate can get the voters to the polls," something Romney hasn't been great at despite his cash advantage. More»

Polls show Romney may have stopped his momentum ahead of CNN Florida debate

(NEWSER) - The GOP field will have its last debate before the Florida primary tonight, and it just might be a doozy. Here's why:

• Newt Gingrich's polling advantage may have vanished. The latest CNN poll has Mitt Romney at 36% and Gingrich at 34%, a statistical tie, and a far cry from some of Gingrich's earlier numbers.
• Nate Silver says his statistical model now rates Gingrich's chance of victory at 60%—a huge dip from the 75% it predicted yesterday . But looking at polling trends, Silver thinks Romney might actually be a slight favorite.

Nate Silver's model gives him a 75% chance of victory, with some 'buts'

(NEWSER) - With Florida less than a week away, Nate Silver is busily crunching the numbers, and while the polls are a tad contradictory, they do show a clear favorite: Newt Gingrich. Indeed, Silver's system gives Gingrich a whopping 75% chance of victory, although that "seems like too confident a prediction, frankly," he writes for the New York Times . Gingrich has only a modest poll lead, after all, and Romney does have some advantages. More»

Nate Silver doesn't think it's especially likely, but it's possible

(NEWSER) - Conventional wisdom has crowned Mitt Romney the inevitable Republican nominee. His stock on Intrade shot up to 72% last night, and one of his strategists recently boasted that he couldn’t “see any scenario where we’re not the nominee." But calm down guys, writes Nate Silver in the New York Times , because “the scenario is pretty easy to articulate.” Early primaries are all about expectations, so a disappointing finish in Iowa or New Hampshire could crush Romney. More»