Black President, Sure; Alabama Governor? We'll See

Polling inaccuracies might surprise us today

(NEWSER) - We keep hearing doom and gloom for the Democrats, and there’s a good chance that’s accurate, writes Nate Silver in the New York Times . But thanks to a few potential polling flaws, things could turn out differently; the Dems might even hang onto the House. Here’s why:

1. Polls often skip cell-phone-only voters—Some 25% of adults don’t use landlines at all, and their demographics lean Democratic.

Steve King, Louie Gohmert not far behind among fringe congressmen

(NEWSER) - A week after releasing its Senate Wingnut Index , the Daily Beast investigates wingnuttery in the House. Using a “semi-scientific” process to identify the most extreme members on both sides of the spectrum, the site ranks them:

1. Michele Bachmann (R-MN): From calling the president “anti-American” to warning of tyranny, “Bachmann has become a symbol of all things Wingnutty in American politics.”

She doesn't seem to be on the same page as Reid

(NEWSER) - It was a little thing. After Tuesday’s powwow with the president on Afghan strategy, Harry Reid emerged from the White House with Nancy Pelosi and announced: “Everyone said that ‘whatever decision you make, we will support it,’” as the House speaker rolled her eyes. Though she maintains she's "not upset," it's clear that the question of whether to send more troops to Afghanistan is a decisive issue among Democrats, notes Politico. More»

But trend and dismal 21% approval of Congress could spell Dem's demise

(NEWSER) - The sizable lead among registered voters Democrats have maintained since the 2006 midterm elections has eroded to almost nothing. In the latest Gallup poll, Dems have just a 2-point advantage over Republicans going into the 2010 midterms, 46% to 44%, well within the sampling error. That’s down from a 6-point lead in July, due mostly to a decrease in support from independents. More»

If trends continue, Republicans could gain 40 seats

(NEWSER) - Fred Barnes surveys the political landscape and sees the possibility of Republicans gaining up to 40 House seats—and thus regaining control of the chamber—in the 2010 elections. "A landslide of that dimension is quite possible," he writes. Democrats have time to reverse the trend, but they're "stuck in defense" and have shown no signs of doing so. If trends continue, Republican might flip up to 4 Senate seats as well. More»