50% Approval Rating Just Another Number: Silver

If economy falters, and Mitt Romney is the nominee, watch out

(NEWSER) - It’s too early for Nate Silver’s usual granular state-by-state election calculus, so the New York Times political prediction guru is looking at the big picture. Obama faces three main challenges: voters think he’s not up to the task, they’re terrified of the economy, and they’re ready to vote for a credible Republican. We can measure each of those things—with approval rating, GDP, and various measures of a Republican’s ideological leanings. More»

Polling inaccuracies might surprise us today

(NEWSER) - We keep hearing doom and gloom for the Democrats, and there’s a good chance that’s accurate, writes Nate Silver in the New York Times . But thanks to a few potential polling flaws, things could turn out differently; the Dems might even hang onto the House. Here’s why:

1. Polls often skip cell-phone-only voters—Some 25% of adults don’t use landlines at all, and their demographics lean Democratic.

Obama's making Bush look good

(NEWSER) - George W. Bush left office with the lowest approval rating since Richard Nixon, while Obama took over with stratospheric numbers. But then a funny thing happened: “America woke up from its 2008 trance and is concluding that Bush was never as bad, and Obama never as good, as advertised,” writes Victor Davis Hanson of the National Review . Bush’s favorability ratings have soared—Ohio, for example, would now prefer him to Obama by a 50-42 margin. More»

She can't afford any more defections

(NEWSER) - A new survey of Democrats could mean a big political headache for Nancy Pelosi. The Hill rounds up 25 in the House who are expected to vote "no" on health care reform. Pelosi can afford no more than 37 defections, and the count doesn't include the 12 Stupak Democrats who are threatening to sink the bill over abortion language or members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus who might do the same over immigration provisions . More»

Latest numbers show steady decline for president

(NEWSER) - Only 50% of respondents to a recent poll say they prefer Barack Obama to George W. Bush, with 44% saying they’d like Dubya back. Given Bush’s vast unpopularity at the end of his term, that’s probably the most troubling number for the president in the latest Public Policy Polling results. The poll gives him a 49% approval rating for December, essentially unchanged from November. More»