2010 a Toss-Up as Indies Flee the Dems

If they run candidates, Democrats will win: Quinnipiac

(NEWSER) - Just 13% of Americans self-identify as members of the Tea Party movement, but a new Quinnipiac poll shows they may well hold the key to the 2010 midterm elections. Respondents say they would vote for a Republican over a Democrat by 44% to 39%. But if a Tea Party candidate is in the mix, the calculus changes drastically: Tea Party, 15%; GOP, 25%; Democrat, 36%. More»

Polling inaccuracies might surprise us today

(NEWSER) - We keep hearing doom and gloom for the Democrats, and there’s a good chance that’s accurate, writes Nate Silver in the New York Times . But thanks to a few potential polling flaws, things could turn out differently; the Dems might even hang onto the House. Here’s why:

1. Polls often skip cell-phone-only voters—Some 25% of adults don’t use landlines at all, and their demographics lean Democratic.

Gallup puts GOP 10 points ahead in generic ballot

(NEWSER) - Things have never looked worse for the Democrats heading into midterm elections, according to the latest Gallup poll. The "generic ballot" test—which asks whether voters would prefer a Republican or Democratic congressional candidate—put the GOP ahead by 10%, the highest margin since Gallup started asking the question in 1942. Some 51% said they'd prefer the Republican, while 41% favored the Democrat and 10% were undecided. More»

Do voters want them to ditch presidential agenda, or complete it?

(NEWSER) - Democrats in Congress reading the tea leaves of Tuesday’s elections find themselves split: were the Republican wins in Virginia and New Jersey a vote of no confidence in the administration’s agenda, or frustration that it isn’t moving fast enough? Most agree on the first step going forward: pass health care reform. After that, it gets fractious. More»

If trends continue, Republicans could gain 40 seats

(NEWSER) - Fred Barnes surveys the political landscape and sees the possibility of Republicans gaining up to 40 House seats—and thus regaining control of the chamber—in the 2010 elections. "A landslide of that dimension is quite possible," he writes. Democrats have time to reverse the trend, but they're "stuck in defense" and have shown no signs of doing so. If trends continue, Republican might flip up to 4 Senate seats as well. More»