Should Democrats Panic? Yes, but Only 'a Little'

Polling inaccuracies might surprise us today

(NEWSER) - We keep hearing doom and gloom for the Democrats, and there’s a good chance that’s accurate, writes Nate Silver in the New York Times . But thanks to a few potential polling flaws, things could turn out differently; the Dems might even hang onto the House. Here’s why:

1. Polls often skip cell-phone-only voters—Some 25% of adults don’t use landlines at all, and their demographics lean Democratic.

It's too early to tell if bump in support for reform will stick

(NEWSER) - Much ado has been made over yesterday's Gallup poll, which showed 49% in favor of the health care bill to 40% opposed, but Republicans shouldn't freak out just yet, writes Nate Silver. Yes, it shows a big increase in support for reform, but it's just one poll, "and even if the bounce is real, it may very well evaporate," he writes at FiveThirtyEight . More»

Republicans need a net gain of 3 seats, and 5 Dem-held seats are toss-ups

(NEWSER) - Thanks in part to a rash of Democrats retiring from the Senate , things are looking pretty good for the Republicans in 2012. In the first edition of its 2012 race ratings, The Hill places five seats currently held by Democrats in the “toss-up” column—and Republicans only need a net gain of three seats to win control. Three of those toss-ups are due to retirements; the other two are Montana Sen. Jon Tester and Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson. More»

Deal will probably preempt secret ballot

(NEWSER) - The sound and fury of the midterm elections may be over, but the end of electoral voting brings about a round of behind-the-scenes jockeying for power. Reps. James Clyburn and Steny Hoyer are both plausible candidates for leading the Democratic minority in the house, but given that Nancy Pelosi will keep her post (well, with "majority" changed to "minority") they've begun low-key insider campaigns for the No. 2 slot, the Wall Street Journal reports. More»

Krugman: GOP control will be economic 'catastrophe' for America

(NEWSER) - Paul Krugman doesn't use the word "Armageddon" when predicting what will happen under Republican control of Congress, but he comes pretty close. "This is going to be terrible," he writes in the New York Times . "In fact, future historians will probably look back at the 2010 election as a catastrophe for America, one that condemned the nation to years of political chaos and economic weakness." More»