Democrats' Fuzzy Math: We Can't Lose!

Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA tops for accuracy, finds Nate Silver

(NEWSER) - Now that the dust has settled, whose polls were the best predictors of the actual midterm results? Nate Silver ranks them by accuracy and party bias over the last 21 days of the election cycle. The most accurate, according to his calculations: Quinnipiac, which “showed little bias,” he writes in the New York Times . The worst: Rasmussen, which scored poorly on both accuracy and bias. More»

Polling inaccuracies might surprise us today

(NEWSER) - We keep hearing doom and gloom for the Democrats, and there’s a good chance that’s accurate, writes Nate Silver in the New York Times . But thanks to a few potential polling flaws, things could turn out differently; the Dems might even hang onto the House. Here’s why:

1. Polls often skip cell-phone-only voters—Some 25% of adults don’t use landlines at all, and their demographics lean Democratic.

'Strange election' offers wide range of outcomes, says Nate Silver

(NEWSER) - Polls are showing a huge range of possible results for tomorrow, with generic ballots suggesting anything from a 15-point Republican lead to a 3-point Democratic lead. “The fact is that there’s not really any way to say who’s right,” writes FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver in the New York Times . Even his own highly sophisticated model offers a wide range of outcomes: Last night it predicted a gain of 53 seats for the GOP, but its "95% confidence interval" runs from 23 seats to 81. More»

Reid and Angle a tossup, Manchin and Murray now favored

(NEWSER) - After a several straight losing weeks, the Democrats gained ground in the battle for the Senate this week, according to New York Times polling guru Nate Silver. Based on 100,000 simulations, Silver’s FiveThirtyEight prediction model now gives the GOP just an 18% chance to take the Senate, down from 24% last week. Democrats are projected to emerge with 52 Senators. More»

Forecasting model gives them just a 15% chance

(NEWSER) - Just how much did Christine O’Donnell’s win hurt the Republicans’ cause? A lot, says forecasting savant Nate Silver of the New York Times . According to Silver’s model, the chances of a Republican Senate takeover have plummeted from 26% to just 15%. Based on current polls, Silver gives O’Donnell just a 6% chance of prevailing. If Mike Castle had won the primary, the odds would have been precisely inverted; he’d have a 94% chance to win. More»