Use of cell phones, unexpected turnout could skew results
Reuters Oct 30, 08 6:08 PM CDT
(Newser)
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Opinion polls can be wrong—just look at Thomas Dewey in 1948 or even Barack Obama, who led Hillary Clinton before the New Hampshire primary but lost anyway. Reuters outlines some factors that could be skewing current results: Turnout: Polls filter the results of phone surveys through models of who is likely to actually vote. But with turnout, especially among African-Americans, expected to set a record, “likely voter” models could be out of date.
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A loss in the state would be 'very depressing' for her
Union Leader (NH) Oct 17, 08 4:50 PM CDT
(Newser)
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If John McCain takes the White House and wins New Hampshire, Meghan McCain says she'll get a tattoo of the state’s motto, the Union Leader reports. "New Hampshire is so important to me and my family," the younger McCain told supporters in the state where her dad turned his presidential prospects around. So important that she's having her wrist measured for some “Live Free or Die” body art.
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19 days is a long time in electoral politics, candidate warns
Reuters Oct 16, 08 3:00 PM CDT
(Newser)
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Polls show that Barack Obama has a solid lead, nationally and in several swing states, over John McCain. But the Democrat warned supporters today to be wary of overconfidence, Reuters reports. “I've been in these positions before when we were favored and the press starts getting carried away and we end up getting spanked,” Obama told a New York audience.
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Concord (NH) Monitor Jun 24, 08 3:04 PM CDT
(Newser)
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A no-traffic-light, one-store New Hampshire town is scrambling to prepare for Friday's joint appearance by Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, the first since she bowed out of the presidential race and endorsed him, reports the Concord Monitor. They're the biggest names to hit town since Arlo Guthrie in 1979, but maybe civic leaders shouldn't be too surprised—the town's name is Unity.
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'Sedona Five' crack team of loyalists revamped battle
Los Angeles Times Mar 7, 08 9:50 AM CST
(Newser)
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John McCain's back-from-the-dead presidential bid can attribute its triumph to a number of factors: the successes of the Iraq surge, the rise of Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani's concession in New Hampshire. But before any of those game-changing events, the McCain comeback was engineered by a small, crack team of loyalists who remained with the candidate when his organization bled employees and money, reports the Los Angeles Times .
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Meanwhile, McCain makes headway after beginning '08 in debt
Washington Post Jan 31, 08 11:34 AM CST
(Newser)
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Barack Obama has raised $32 million this month, the Washington Post reports—a massive number in such a short span. The Democrat's campaign manager reported 170,000 new donors in January, raising the total number of contributors to 650,000. The best fundraising day was immediately following Hillary Clinton’s Jan. 8 victory in New Hampshire—which the Obama camp interprets as showing “the resolve” of supporters.
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OPINION
Poll expert thinks poor whites voted against him because he's black
New York Times Jan 11, 08 8:59 AM CST
(Newser)
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Polls predicting a Barack Obama win in New Hampshire were way off, and the head of the Pew Research Center thinks race and class were part of the reason. In his years as a pollster, he has found that poorer, less-educated white people are less likely to agree to answer poll questions—and more likely to vote against black candidates.
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Cites 'irregularities,' calls for New Hampshire recount
The Hill Jan 11, 08 8:01 AM CST
(Newser)
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Longshot Democratic hopeful Dennis Kucinich wants the ballots recounted in the New Hampshire primary, The Hill reports. While he's not under any illusions that a recount would boost his own number—less than 2%—significantly, he says in a letter to the NH secretary of state there are “serious and credible reports, allegations, and rumors" about the vote's integrity.
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OPINION
Times scribe: Clinton got 'sympathy vote' from women who recognized her vulnerability
New York Times Jan 10, 08 2:37 PM CST
(Newser)
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Hillary Clinton had a “horrendous week” in the lead-up to Tuesday's New Hampshire primary—and won not on merit, but on a “sympathy vote” from women who saw themselves in her, exhausted and “overdosed on multitasking.” The New York Times ’ Gail Collins argues that women recognized the sensation of being made to feel like failures by “the men in their lives.”
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At 100-to-1, Hillary's victory startles political gambling websites
Bloomberg Jan 10, 08 12:39 PM CST
(Newser)
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Clinton supporters of an apolitical kind had reason to celebrate after her surprise win in New Hampshire: bettors on a Hillary victory reaped huge payoffs after her odds dropped to a low of 100-to-1. Bloomberg reports that the Dublin-based Intrade had made an Obama result a near certainty, leaving contrarians who bet $100 holding a bag of $10,000.
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OPINION
Pundits discuss where the candidates stand the day after
Wall Street Journal Jan 9, 08 4:10 PM CST
(Newser)
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As candidates close up shop in New England, the chattering classes look to the state of the race. Here are four takes on the Republican outcome in New Hampshire: Wall Street J ournal editors give John McCain credit “for sheer doggedness,” saying the Iraq surge’s success gave him a boost. He’s now the candidate “best positioned to appeal” to all GOPers, but uniting the party’s “anxious and fractious wings” will take new platforms; the Journal coyly suggest tax cuts.
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OPINION
Ink barely dry on NH results, scribes start in on meaning
Daily Dish (The Atlantic) Jan 9, 08 2:07 PM CST
(Newser)
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What's the take on the Clinton upset, the morning after? Four responses from across the spectrum: Obama-supporting rightie Andrew Sullivan says a media pile-on on Hillary Clinton sparked “voter backlash.” He’s partly “crushed,” but also excited that the candidates will now fight “a long slog” that will bring out their real strengths.
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Voters share concerns about Bush, markets
CNN Jan 9, 08 11:30 AM CST
(Newser)
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New Hampshire exit polls picked the brains of yesterday’s voters, finding not only that women helped Hillary Clinton and independents boosted John McCain, but also that the economy was foremost in most voters’ minds—and Republicans weren’t giving Bush backers a free pass. While two-thirds of Granite State GOPers still support the Iraq war, half of them were angry with the current president, CNN reports.
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