polling

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Trump Catches Clinton in National Polls: What It Means

The key thing to keep in mind: It's only May

(Newser) - Not too long ago, Hillary Clinton held double-digit leads over Donald Trump in a hypothetical one-on-one matchup. Trump, however, has now actually edged ahead of her in an average of national polls compiled at RealClearPolitics . The development has prompted all kinds of analysis. Some highlights:
  • "Mr. Trump has made
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Trump May Be More Popular Than You Think

Some supporters might be lying to pollsters, study finds

(Newser) - Some Donald Trump supporters are too ashamed to admit it, according to a new study that suggests that his poll numbers may be even higher than GOP strategists think. Researchers at the Morning Consult polling firm say that when they polled almost 2,500 Republican and Republican-leaning voters using a... More »

Clinton and Trump's Hot New Rival: Deez Nuts

Independent 'candidate' is 15-year-old from Iowa doing surprisingly well in polls

(Newser) - Before this week, Deez Nuts was nothing more than an Internet meme . Now Deez Nuts has turned into a different kind of sensation : a top-polling independent presidential candidate against Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. In a Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina released yesterday, 40% of voters would pull... More »

Who Needs Polls? We Have Twitter

Fabio Rojas reveals a new study showing social media predicts outcomes

(Newser) - Bad news, professional pollsters: Twitter is about to put you out of work. Or at least, that's what sociologist Fabio Rojas is predicting, based on a study he helped conduct. The study found that "Twitter discussions are an unusually good predictor of US House elections," he writes... More »

Mayor Weiner? He Spends $100K on Pollster

Money suggests ex-congressman is getting back into politics

(Newser) - Anthony Weiner isn't saying anything publicly, but his wallet suggests he's serious about getting back into politics soon. The former congressman spent more than $100,000 on consulting and polling this month, reports the New York Post , setting off all kinds of renewed speculation that he plans to... More »

'Odd' Views Persist on Obama's Religion: Poll

'Makes it difficult to trust the results': blogger

(Newser) - The AP released a shocking poll this week showing that racism is up across America and could cost Obama 5 points—but that poll also contains some weird numbers, blogs mollie at Patheos . First, the less weird: Only 10% think he's Muslim—down from 17% in 2010—while about... More »

I'm Addicted to Polls

But, writes David Brooks, he really shouldn't be

(Newser) - David Brooks has a confession to make: "Hello, my name is David, and I’m a pollaholic," he writes in the New York Times , revealing that he's spent hundreds of hours over the past few months obsessing over any and every election poll he can find, checking... More »

Romney Pulls Even With Debate Bounce

Post-Wednesday tracking shows Romney narrows the gap

(Newser) - President Obama had the edge in Gallup polling immediately prior to last week's debate—but that changed after Mitt Romney walked away with Wednesday's debate. Registered voters are now evenly split, 47% for Romney and 47% for Obama, Gallup's daily tracking shows. Gallup's most recent poll,... More »

Obama Leading —a Bit—in Slew of New Polls

But Romney not far behind as first debate looms

(Newser) - In the final hours before the first presidential debate of the 2012 election, a host of new polls to consider:
  • President Obama has a significant lead in the battleground state of Ohio, 51% to Mitt Romney's 43%, according to an NBC News /Wall Street Journal poll. That's been
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Number of Blacks Who Support Romney: 0%

Romney ticket 4 points behind Obama's heading to convention

(Newser) - Ever wonder how many black voters support Mitt Romney? The simple answer is: 0% . A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll has found that 94% of blacks back President Obama, compared to zilch for Romney. The poll also found that Obama is doing better among Latinos, voters under 35, and women.... More »

God's Approval Rating: 52%

Almighty gets high marks for creation, but loses points on natural disasters

(Newser) - Forget presidential and congressional approval polls. The left-leaning Public Policy Polling has finally asked the big question : "If God exists, do you approve or disapprove of its performance?" Some 52% approve of the job God is doing; 9% disapprove; and 40% are unsure, reports the Atlantic Wire . By comparison,... More »

Come 2012, Follow These Polls

Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA tops for accuracy, finds Nate Silver

(Newser) - Now that the dust has settled, whose polls were the best predictors of the actual midterm results? Nate Silver ranks them by accuracy and party bias over the last 21 days of the election cycle. The most accurate, according to his calculations: Quinnipiac, which “showed little bias,” he... More »

How Dems Could Keep the House

Polling inaccuracies might surprise us today

(Newser) - We keep hearing doom and gloom for the Democrats, and there’s a good chance that’s accurate, writes Nate Silver in the New York Times . But thanks to a few potential polling flaws, things could turn out differently; the Dems might even hang onto the House. Here’s why:... More »

No Way to Predict Size of GOP Gains

'Strange election' offers wide range of outcomes, says Nate Silver

(Newser) - Polls are showing a huge range of possible results for tomorrow, with generic ballots suggesting anything from a 15-point Republican lead to a 3-point Democratic lead. “The fact is that there’s not really any way to say who’s right,” writes FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver in... More »

Tea Party Support Slips

Poll shows young voters, white Southerners less happy

(Newser) - A new poll from the Washington Post and ABC shows that support for the tea party movement appears to be slipping, reports the Right Now blog :
  • The percentage who hold an unfavorable view of the movement rose from 39% in March to 50%.
  • The decline is particularly sharp among 18-
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Don't Trust Any Poll That Omits Cellphones

They're ignoring 25% of the populace

(Newser) - Yeah, it's expensive, but pollsters need to start calling cellphones. According to the latest CDC data, 23% of US adults, or 25% of US households are cellphone-only, writes Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com . Add in “cellphone-mostly” households and that jumps to 40%—and it could be even higher by... More »

Why Post Poll Matters —and Why It Doesn't

New survey shows more support for public option

(Newser) - A new Washington Post/ABC poll showing an uptick in support for the public option—it stands at 57%—has pundits weighing in on the impact:
  • George Stephanopoulos, ABC: It's likely "those numbers aren't strong enough—at least not yet—to shake enough swing senators off their opposition to the
... More »

Fear, Not Fraud, May Have Won Iranian Election

(Newser) - A pre-election poll of Iranian voters favoring Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been held up as proof that the election was fair. Not so, writes Nate Silver on FiveThirtyEight.com. The poll, conducted by Terror Free Tomorrow, found that 33.8% of respondents intended to vote for Ahmadinejad, versus 13.6% for... More »

Poll: US on 'Right Track' for First Time in 5 Years

48% are optimistic, up eight points in two months

(Newser) - For the first time in years, more Americans than not say the country is headed in the right direction, according to an AP poll. The percentage of Americans saying the country is headed in the right direction rose to 48%, up eight points from February, while 44% say the nation... More »

Sexting 'Craze' May Really Be Skewed Polling

'Internet cowboys and cowgirls' twist results of online surveys

(Newser) - One in five teenagers have shared naughty pictures of themselves over the phone or online—at least according to reports of the “sexting epidemic” that’s been causing hysteria lately. But the figure might be bogus, the Wall Street Journal reports, because it’s based on a voluntary online... More »

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