exit polls

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Why So Many Pollsters Were So Completely Wrong

Some theories as to where it went off the rails

(Newser) - The prevailing question the morning after Donald Trump's stunning victory is: How did so many get it so wrong? An "absolutely unreal" "Chance of Winning Presidency" graphic on the New York Times' forecasting page Tuesday evening showed Trump ascending from a 20% chance of winning the White... More »

Get Ready for an 'Unprecedented Election Day Experiment'

Exit poll results to be released in real time for 7 battleground states

(Newser) - In the old days (meaning before this election), results from exit polls weren't released by the news groups until all polls had closed. But thanks to a joint initiative via Slate, Vice News, and a company called Votecastr , how exit polls are handled this time around will be a... More »

Exit Polls: Voters Miserable About Everything

They don't like Obama, Congress, country's path

(Newser) - The first exit polls show that those who turned out to vote today are in a foul mood politically, and it applies to both President Obama and Republicans. Some highlights:
  • Obama: More than half, 54%, disapprove of Obama, a figure just shy of George W. Bush's 57% in the
... More »

Economy No. 1 Concern for 60% of Voters

Americans generally split on ObamaCare

(Newser) - Not a huge surprise here: Initial results from the AP's exit poll show that six out of 10 voters feel the economy is the No. 1 issue facing the US today. That's basically unchanged from 2008, when 62% of voters said the same thing . Other preliminary findings :
  • Which
... More »

Gas Prices, Economy Top Voter Concerns: Exit Polls

Social issues not a major concern, polls find

(Newser) - Super Tuesday voters handed victories to three different candidates, but Republicans in all 10 states shared similar concerns, exit polls found. The economy was the number one issue in every state. Despite the recent focus on social issues, few voters names abortion as their chief concern, and there was little... More »

Democrats, Independents Might Decide Michigan

Race looks close as polls get set to close

(Newser) - The polls begin closing in Michigan at 8pm Eastern time, but it could be hours after that before the race is called, says the Wall Street Journal . Things are so tight between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum that Democrats and independents might end up determining the winner in the open... More »

Almost 1 in 3 Gays Voted Republican

It's an increase over 2008

(Newser) - Is the Republican party getting a bit more fabulous? In a CNN exit poll , 31% of those who identified themselves as gay voted Republican, up from 27% in 2008 and 23% in 2004. The sample size is pretty small—only 3% of the 17,504 voters CNN talked to were... More »

It Was the Economy, Stupid

Voters didn't trust Democrats to turn fortunes around

(Newser) - Those who went to the polls cared about the economy and President Obama's handling of it, not witchcraft, masturbation, or college pranks, exit polls show. More than 60% of voters polled said the economy was the country's top problem and more than 90% said they were worried about its condition... More »

Britain Heads Toward Hung Parliament

Cameron's Conservatives win, but not a majority

(Newser) - Exit polls suggest that the Conservatives captured the largest number of seats today in Britain's national election but will fall short of a majority—triggering a hung parliament and uncertainty over who will form the next government. David Cameron's Conservative party is expected to win 307 House of Commons seats,... More »

Blame Weak Candidates, Not Obama

Polling guru gives a post-mortem on last night's elections

(Newser) - The numbers are in, now it's time to make sense of them. Nate Silver breaks down last night's election results:
  • Don’t blame Obama; Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine were probably just weak candidates. In New Jersey, 57% of voters approved of Obama, but 27% of those supporters voted Republican
... More »

Obama Is Minimal Factor in NJ, Va., Exit Polls Show

Majorities say president has no influence on vote

(Newser) - President Obama seems to have been a minimal factor in gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, at least according to early exit polls. In Virginia, where Republican Bob McDonnell won, 55% said Obama wasn’t behind their vote; that figure was 60% in New Jersey, where the race was... More »

Who Voted for Obama

Politico breaks down the exit polls to understand the makeup of Obama's historic victory

(Newser) - How did the first African-American president piece together such a decisive winning coalition? In Politico, David Paul Kuhn picks apart the pieces of the Barack Obama vote:
  • Obama won a solid 43% of the white vote, matching Bill Clinton’s 1996 performance in that group and nearly Jimmy Carter’s
... More »

State Polling Results You're Not Seeing on TV

Obama has most leads, but take these with a big chunk of salt

(Newser) - Huffington Post got its hands on the exit polling information shared with media outlets at 5pm but not reported by television networks. They show Barack Obama leading in most swing states, though the HuffPo cautions that the numbers are extremely unreliable; believe at your own risk. The list has Obama... More »

Economy No. 1 Issue for 62% of Voters

(Newser) - The economy is the top issue for voters, today's exit polling confirmed, with 62%  of those interviewed saying it was their No. 1 priority. Iraq was most important to 10%, and terrorism and health care were each named by 9%. For those most concerned with the economy, CNN said, more... More »

Politico's Play-by-Play Guide to Game Time Tonight

(Newser) - At 5 tonight, a wave of exit-polling results will be distributed to media insiders, who'll try manfully to resist sharing anything that might prejudice voters—even though it will kill them. At 6 pm, the results will start rolling in, and Politico gives you a play-by-play guide to what to... More »

Ignore Those Exit Polls!

Sample sizes and enthusiasm gaps can skew results

(Newser) - Exit polls can be addictive for those who can't take Election Day suspense, but poll analyst Nate Silver recommends you resist the temptation. Here's why:
  1. Exit polls have high margins of error because they are taken at only a few precincts in a state.
  2. Exit polls overstated Democratic support in
... More »

McCain Camp Warning: Exit Polls Skew Democratic

They always favor Democrats, so just ignore them

(Newser) - John McCain is likely to underperform in exit polls, which historically favor Democrats, writes McCain’s pollster Bill McInturff in a memo reprinted by CQ Insider. In the last two presidential elections, exit polls have shown the Democratic candidate doing better than he ultimately did in the real vote count.... More »

Talking Heads Vow Restraint ... Sort of

Networks vow some restraint

(Newser) - Television news executives have vowed they won't jump the gun and project a president-elect until one man has 270 electoral votes. And they won't count electoral votes until polls are closed, reports the Los Angeles Times. But if key states in the East and Midwest back Obama, viewers will likely... More »

Pollsters: Our Predictions Could Be Off

Cell phones, turnout, and prejudice threaten to skew forecasts

(Newser) - Pollsters worry that a growing affinity for cell phones (most surveys rely on landlines), unspoken racial biases, and tough-to-predict turnout among young people and black people could skew their predictions come November, writes Mark Blumenthal in the National Journal. When pollsters "compare notes this year, worry is the prevailing... More »

Obama Claws Back With Key Demos

Surveys show candidate recovering from Pa. setback

(Newser) - Barack Obama romped to victory in North Carolina and almost fought Hillary Clinton to a draw in Indiana by relying on his most loyal coalitions: young voters, African-Americans, and liberals. He also did better yesterday than in recent races among white men, pulling about 40% of that demo in Indiana.... More »

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