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NEWS ABOUT: exit polls

Almost 1 in 3 Gays Voted Republican

It's an increase over 2008

(Newser) - Is the Republican party getting a bit more fabulous? In a CNN exit poll , 31% of those who identified themselves as gay voted Republican, up from 27% in 2008 and 23% in 2004. The sample size is pretty small—only 3% of the 17,504 voters CNN talked to were... More »

It Was the Economy, Stupid

Voters didn't trust Democrats to turn fortunes around

(Newser) - Those who went to the polls cared about the economy and President Obama's handling of it, not witchcraft, masturbation, or college pranks, exit polls show. More than 60% of voters polled said the economy was the country's top problem and more than 90% said they were worried about its condition... More »

Britain Heads Toward Hung Parliament

Cameron's Conservatives win, but not a majority

(AP) - Exit polls suggest that the Conservatives captured the largest number of seats today in Britain's national election but will fall short of a majority—triggering a hung parliament and uncertainty over who will form the next government. David Cameron's Conservative party is expected to win 307 House of Commons seats,... More »

Blame Weak Candidates, Not Obama

Polling guru gives a post-mortem on last night's elections

(Newser) - The numbers are in, now it's time to make sense of them. Nate Silver breaks down last night's election results:
  • Don’t blame Obama; Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine were probably just weak candidates. In New Jersey, 57% of voters approved of Obama, but 27% of those supporters voted Republican
... More »

Obama Is Minimal Factor in NJ, Va., Exit Polls Show

Majorities say president has no influence on vote

(Newser) - President Obama seems to have been a minimal factor in gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, at least according to early exit polls. In Virginia, where Republican Bob McDonnell won, 55% said Obama wasn’t behind their vote; that figure was 60% in New Jersey, where the race was... More »

Who Voted for Obama

Politico breaks down the exit polls to understand the makeup of Obama's historic victory

(Newser) - How did the first African-American president piece together such a decisive winning coalition? In Politico, David Paul Kuhn picks apart the pieces of the Barack Obama vote:
  • Obama won a solid 43% of the white vote, matching Bill Clinton’s 1996 performance in that group and nearly Jimmy Carter’s
... More »

State Polling Results You're Not Seeing on TV

Obama has most leads, but take these with a big chunk of salt

(Newser) - Huffington Post got its hands on the exit polling information shared with media outlets at 5pm but not reported by television networks. They show Barack Obama leading in most swing states, though the HuffPo cautions that the numbers are extremely unreliable; believe at your own risk. The list has Obama... More »

Economy No. 1 Issue for 62% of Voters

(Newser) - The economy is the top issue for voters, today's exit polling confirmed, with 62%  of those interviewed saying it was their No. 1 priority. Iraq was most important to 10%, and terrorism and health care were each named by 9%. For those most concerned with the economy, CNN said, more... More »

Politico's Play-by-Play Guide to Game Time Tonight

(Newser) - At 5 tonight, a wave of exit-polling results will be distributed to media insiders, who'll try manfully to resist sharing anything that might prejudice voters—even though it will kill them. At 6 pm, the results will start rolling in, and Politico gives you a play-by-play guide to what to... More »

Ignore Those Exit Polls!

Sample sizes and enthusiasm gaps can skew results

(Newser) - Exit polls can be addictive for those who can't take Election Day suspense, but poll analyst Nate Silver recommends you resist the temptation. Here's why:
  1. Exit polls have high margins of error because they are taken at only a few precincts in a state.
  2. Exit polls overstated Democratic support in
... More »

McCain Camp Warning: Exit Polls Skew Democratic

They always favor Democrats, so just ignore them

(Newser) - John McCain is likely to underperform in exit polls, which historically favor Democrats, writes McCain’s pollster Bill McInturff in a memo reprinted by CQ Insider. In the last two presidential elections, exit polls have shown the Democratic candidate doing better than he ultimately did in the real vote count.... More »

Talking Heads Vow Restraint ... Sort of

Networks vow some restraint

(Newser) - Television news executives have vowed they won't jump the gun and project a president-elect until one man has 270 electoral votes. And they won't count electoral votes until polls are closed, reports the Los Angeles Times. But if key states in the East and Midwest back Obama, viewers will likely... More »

Pollsters: Our Predictions Could Be Off

Cell phones, turnout, and prejudice threaten to skew forecasts

(Newser) - Pollsters worry that a growing affinity for cell phones (most surveys rely on landlines), unspoken racial biases, and tough-to-predict turnout among young people and black people could skew their predictions come November, writes Mark Blumenthal in the National Journal. When pollsters "compare notes this year, worry is the prevailing... More »

Obama Claws Back With Key Demos

Surveys show candidate recovering from Pa. setback

(Newser) - Barack Obama romped to victory in North Carolina and almost fought Hillary Clinton to a draw in Indiana by relying on his most loyal coalitions: young voters, African-Americans, and liberals. He also did better yesterday than in recent races among white men, pulling about 40% of that demo in Indiana.... More »

Indiana, NC Voters Rate Economy No. 1 Issue

Voters evenly divided over Wright effect

(Newser) - In exit polling in both Indiana and North Carolina today, voters overwhelmingly said the economy was the No. 1 issue influencing their decision in the presidential primary. In Indiana, 65% said the economy was most important, compared to 60% in North Carolina. Asked if the recession had affected their lives,... More »

Blue-Collar White Voters Back Clinton

Exit polls give her big edge; he wins more than 90% of black vote

(Newser) - Hillary Clinton fared especially well among white, blue-collar voters in Pennsylvania, exit polls show. She won two-thirds of their votes, her best showing among that group to date, the AP reports. She also won among women overall and late deciders. Barack Obama, meanwhile, won among young voters and affluent voters.... More »

Medvedev Wins in a Landslide

Putin pupil has asked current prez to be PM

(Newser) - On par with expectations, Dmitry Medvedev has won Russia’s presidential election with 69.6% of the vote, an exit poll says. His closest rival took just 17.2%. The victory likely means little change for Russia, as Medvedev has asked current president Vladimir Putin to be his prime minister... More »

Hillary Coalition Collapses as Barack Lures Working Class

He wins white men 3-2 in Wisconsin

(Newser) - Barack Obama's 17-point victory in Wisconsin contains a major warning for Hillary Clinton: not only did the Illinois senator win among his usual coalition of well-educated, young and black voters, but he also captured the vote of the working class, particularly men. The "durable coalition" that Clinton strategist Mark... More »

Obama Cuts Clinton’s White Lead; Hillary Wins Latinos

(Newser) - One question hanging over Super Tuesday primaries was whether Barack Obama could attract white supporters across the country more effectively than he had in his South Carolina win. Obama answered that in the affirmative, losing white voters last night to Hillary Clinton by a much narrower margin of 44% to... More »

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