swing states

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Romney Win a Sure Thing: Election Model

Model based on economy would have correctly predicted last 8 elections

(Newser) - Forget polls. If you want to know who's going to win in November, it's the economy, stupid. A new prediction model based on state-by-state economic data predicts that Mitt Romney will prevail with 320 electoral votes, snapping up nearly all of the key swing states, to President Obama'...

Swing States: Romney Doesn't Care About Us

Voters back Obama, and really back his plan to hike taxes on top 2%

(Newser) - Barack Obama is leading in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida, in part because voters don't think Mitt Romney is looking out for them, according to a new Quinnipiac / New York Times /CBS News poll. Both candidates polled fairly evenly when it came to how voters thought they'd handle...

Poll: Obama Clinging to Lead

Pessimistic voters not enthused about either candidate

(Newser) - President Obama is still on course to narrowly win a second term despite recent setbacks, according to the latest Wall Street Journal /NBC poll. Obama is ahead of Mitt Romney 47% to 44%, according to the poll. The survey also finds the president further ahead in a dozen swing states...

Obama Ads Blast Romney as 'Outsourcer-in-Chief'

Campaign capitalizes on Washington Post article

(Newser) - The Obama campaign is once again attacking Mitt Romney's past at Bain Capital, this time capitalizing on a Washington Post article on the firm's propensity for sending jobs overseas. "Does Virginia really want an outsourcer-in-chief in the White House?" asks one of three new ads the campaign...

Arizona Ruling a Quagmire for Romney, GOP

Hispanic vote needed for swing states, but GOP loves tough policies

(Newser) - With Republicans and Mitt Romney struggling to get Hispanic votes, yesterday's Supreme Court ruling mostly striking down Arizona's tough immigration law has just muddied an already difficult dilemma, reports the Washington Post . Getting tough on illegal immigration fires up the GOP base, but Romney needs upward of 40%...

Introducing &#39;Elastic States&#39;


 Introducing 'Elastic States' 
nate silver

Introducing 'Elastic States'

They're not swing states, but they have a lot of swing voters: Nate Silver

(Newser) - You already know all about swing states; today in the New York Times , Nate Silver introduces another important factor in the 2012 election: elastic states, which can produce difficult-to-predict results. Swing states, he explains, sometimes have very few swing voters (see North Carolina, where likely Democratic voters are fairly evenly...

Team Romney's Game Plan: Win These 6 States

On the to-do list: Winning back Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia

(Newser) - While Team Romney certainly isn't expecting a landslide win for its man this November, the Republican's campaign staffers see a clear—but narrow—path to 270 electoral votes and victory, the Washington Post finds. The campaign plans to focus on winning back three GOP-leaning states Obama took in...

2012 Election Hinges on 4 States

Maybe five if Florida stays in play

(Newser) - Odds are, the state you live in doesn't matter in the 2012 election, strategically speaking. Democratic and Republican strategists tend to agree that the entire race will come down to just four or five swing states, the LA Times reports: Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, and maybe Florida. Polls show...

Women Give Obama Big Swing-State Lead

 Women Give Obama 
 Big Swing-State Lead 
poll numbers

Women Give Obama Big Swing-State Lead

President beating Mitt Romney 51% to 42% in 12 battleground states

(Newser) - There's finally a clear leader in the 2012 race for the swing states: President Obama has a 51% to 42% advantage over Mitt Romney, according to the fifth USA Today/Gallup poll of the top 12 battleground states. The change from a month ago, when Romney was ahead by two...

Negative Attacks Souring Colorado Voters on GOP

'Anybody but Obama' not enough for crucial independents in swing states

(Newser) - The bruising, highly negative Republican presidential nomination fight appears to be creating a new casualty as the race moves into swing states like Colorado—independent voters, reports the Los Angeles Times . President Obama may have disappointed many voters over the past three years, but the GOP candidates' continuing bashing of...

Why Obama&#39;s Not Inevitable
 Why Obama's 
 Not Inevitable 
Analysis

Why Obama's Not Inevitable

There are plenty of reasons the president should be worried

(Newser) - Democrats, and many pundits, seem to believe that President Obama is rebounding, and will surely win re-election, but Jim Vandehei of Politico isn't buying it. Here's why he thinks the president should be sweating right now:
  • The economy: The recent CBO report not only projected another trillion-dollar deficit,
...

In 2 Key Swing States, Bad News for Obama

He's statistically tied with Romney, Perry in Ohio, and close to it in Pennsylvania

(Newser) - Barack Obama is in for a fight in a pair of major swing states that he carried handily in 2008, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll. In both Ohio and Pennsylvania, 51% say the president doesn’t deserve another term, and 53% and 54% respectively disapprove of the job...

Ex-Governor: 'Crazy' GOPers Can't Win Ohio

Nobody but Mitt Romney even stands a chance, Ted Strickland says

(Newser) - As Ohio goes, so goes the nation? Former Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland tells Politico that none of the current Republican candidates can beat President Obama in the state that has picked the winner in 25 out of the last 27 presidential elections. The only one that even stands a chance...

Blue States Dominate, and Purple Gains Ground

Dramatic shift in electorate favors liberals: poll

(Newser) - Blue states are far bluer than red states are red, says a new Gallup poll. Party registrations favor Democrats—they lead by 10 or more percentage points in 29 states and the DC, compared to four states where Republicans dominate—suggesting that Dems can expand on ther gains they made...

Politico's Play-by-Play Guide to Game Time Tonight

(Newser) - At 5 tonight, a wave of exit-polling results will be distributed to media insiders, who'll try manfully to resist sharing anything that might prejudice voters—even though it will kill them. At 6 pm, the results will start rolling in, and Politico gives you a play-by-play guide to what to...

Nader, Barr Could Still Tip Some Tight Races

Third-party candidates could play a role in some states

(Newser) - Third-party candidates haven’t won much attention in this election, but in some hotly contested states their candidacies could still affect the outcome, the Boston Globe reports. Independent Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr could play a role in Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, and Ohio, among others, the paper reports—...

No, Matt Drudge, the McCain Gap Isn't Closing
No, Matt Drudge, the
McCain Gap Isn't Closing
ANALYSIS

No, Matt Drudge, the McCain Gap Isn't Closing

FiveThirtyEight's Silver smacks down "tightening polls" narrative

(Newser) - Calm down, writes Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com. There's no need to panic over a couple of polls, trumpeted by Drudge, showing the race tightening. “Man, I thought I trained you guys better than this,” he notes. One, the Mason-Dixon poll, shows Obama up by only 4 in...

Is McCain Closing the Gap? Not Fast Enough: Silver

Republican picking up little to no ground

(Newser) - John McCain isn’t moving up on Barack Obama in the polls—at least not fast enough to be significant, writes statistics guru Nate Silver at his blog FiveThirtyEight.com. The Republican appears to be about six or seven points back. While he’s picked up maybe a point in...

In Pivotal Virginia, Lawsuit and Dirty Politics Surface

(Newser) - The election is heating up in Virginia, with fake notices and lawsuits flying around the swing state. The majority black region of Hampton Roads has been blanketed with official-seeming fliers falsely stating that Democrats are to vote November 5, Talking Points Memo reports. And the NAACP has sued the state,...

Amish Could Give McCain Crucial Swing-State Support

Many members of sect, concentrated in Ohio, Pa., voted Bush in '04

(Newser) - With John McCain now focused on winning Ohio, Indiana and Pennsylvania, he could get help from a group that has traditionally avoided politics: the Amish. When they do vote, Amish are thought to be 100% Republican because of their views on abortion, Benjamin Sarlin writes in the Daily Beast; George...

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