Bradley effect

8 Stories

Blacks Oppose Legalizing Pot? Maybe Not

Polls show new variation on Bradley effect

(Newser) - If you look at the six available polls on the prospects for California's Proposition 19, which would legalize and tax pot, a funny thing emerges. Funny to Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight , anyway. The three automated polls show legalization passing by double-digit margins, and the three that used human operators show... More »

Why the Polls May Be Wrong

Use of cell phones, unexpected turnout could skew results

(Newser) - Opinion polls can be wrong—just look at Thomas Dewey in 1948 or even Barack Obama, who led Hillary Clinton before the New Hampshire primary but lost anyway. Reuters outlines some factors that could be skewing current results:
  • Turnout: Polls filter the results of phone surveys through models of who
... More »

Obama: 'We've Got a Good Shot at This Thing'

Whites 'didn't get the Bradley effect memo,' he quips on Daily Show

(Newser) - Barack Obama wrapped up his night of blitzing TV with an upbeat appearance on the Daily Show, the Chicago Tribune writes. "I think we've got a good shot at this thing," he told Jon Stewart last night, downplaying the chances of his race costing him the election. Pundits... More »

Racism Will Blunt Obama's Lead: Barkley

Baller-turn-pundit calls polls 'absolutely useless'

(Newser) - Charles Barkley has news for the experts predicting the Bradley effect won’t undermine Barack Obama’s lead. “The polls are absolutely useless,” the former NBA star says, anticipating a race “down to the wire.” While he concedes some whites will vote Democrat for “their... More »

'Real' America's Not Racist

Image of rural whites distorted by McCain, media

(Newser) - The media focus on the “Bradley effect" and the notion of a divided nation—"real" vs. "elite"—hyped by the McCain campaign suggests that racism among small-town whites will prove a stumbling block for Barack Obama, Frank Rich writes. But the alleged racism is nowhere near... More »

Shhh. Don't Tell: I'm Voting for Obama

Disgusted Republicans could cancel out Bradley Effect

(Newser) - There are plenty of unpredictable factors that might elude pollsters, Kathleen Parker writes in the Washington Post. Most famous is the Bradley Effect. “While some have minimized the impact of a Bradley Effect in this election, we'd be wrong to discount it. Anti-black has morphed to some degree into... More »

Race Didn't Defeat Bradley: He Was Too Liberal

And if Obama loses, it'll be for the same reason

(Newser) - If Barack Obama loses in November, the media will surely cite the Bradley Effect, the theory that voters lie to pollsters to hide racial biases. It’s named after Tom Bradley, the black mayor of Los Angeles who lost the 1982 governor’s race in California, despite huge leads in... More »

Pollsters to Voters: Be Straight With Us

Gay-marriage ban fails in surveys, but are respondents lying?

(Newser) - Polls indicate that a California ballot measure to ban gay marriage will fail by a substantial margin—but that might be because respondents are lying to pollsters to avoid seeming homophobic, the Sacramento Bee reports. A recent study sponsored by supporters of the measure hints that polls do understate support... More »

8 Stories