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FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2009
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NEWS ABOUT: Nate Silver

Nate Silver stories: 35 news summaries

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Nate Silver

Most Red State Dems Can Vote for Health Care

Only Blanche Lincoln faces 2010 fight, and she'll be a tough sell

14 hours, 11 minutes ago
(Newser) - The main reason Senate Democrats have a prayer of passing health care reform is that not many of them are up for reelection next year, says Nate Silver. Only a third of the Senate is up for re-election in 2010, and most of the Democrats in that group come from... More »

MORE ABOUT:
Senate • Mary Landrieu • health care reform • Ben Nelson • Nate Silver • Election 2010 • 2010 • Blanche Lincoln

nate silver

Should Democrats Panic? Yes, but Only 'a Little'

Party's in 'fairly bad shape,' but there's time to rebound

Nov 13, 09 8:44 AM CST
(Newser) - A new Gallup poll shows Republicans ahead of Democrats in a generic House ballot, a reversal of political fortune from October. Is it time for the party to panic? "Maybe a little," writes Nate Silver . "My 30,000-foot view is that between the pressures of the jobs... More »

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Congress • Democrats • House of Representatives • Gallup poll • 2010 election • Nate Silver • Republicans

Nate Silver

 Blame Weak 
 Candidates, 
 Not Obama 

Polling guru gives a post-mortem on last night's elections

Nov 4, 09 8:36 AM CST
(Newser) - The numbers are in, now it's time to make sense of them. Nate Silver breaks down last night's election results:
  • Don’t blame Obama; Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine were probably just weak candidates. In New Jersey, 57% of voters approved of Obama, but 27% of those supporters voted
... More »

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gay marriage • New York City • Jon Corzine • New Jersey • New York • Michael Bloomberg • Virginia • exit polls • election • poll numbers • Nate Silver • Creigh Deeds • Christopher Christie • Bob McDonnell • Doug Hoffman • Bill Owens • Election 09 • election day November 2009

OPINION

 GOP: It's 
 Time to 
 Rebrand to 
 'Conservative' 

New name may have greater pull than tainted Repub label

Nov 3, 09 2:29 AM CST
(Newser) - Candidates on both sides are doing their best to hide their party affiliation but it's the Republicans who have the most to worry about, writes Nate Silver . "The Democratic brand is marginal in about half the country, but the Republican brand is radioactive in about two-thirds of it ,"... More »

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Republican • conservative • Republican Party • election • conservatism • Nate Silver • conservative movement • Doug Hoffman • Dede Scozzafava • 23rd District

NATE SILVER

Bank Reform Shatters Usual Party Lines

Next big domestic issue will be 'fascinating' to watch

Oct 22, 09 11:37 AM CDT
(Newser) - Once health care reform is “settled,” Nate Silver writes, the White House will be searching for a new domestic issue. Card check is too hard, immigration will have to wait for 2012’s “younger, more diverse electorate,” and gay rights is a slog. The winner, in... More »

MORE ABOUT:
finance • Republican Party • domestic policy • financial sector • Obama administration • banking industry • Nate Silver • President Obama • Tea Party • bank reform

Nate Silver

 Why the Public 
 Option's Still Alive 

Polls, time, and activism keep popular concept on the table

Oct 21, 09 12:57 PM CDT
(Newser) - Reports of the public option’s demise look to have been exaggerated. Nate Silver breaks down what revived it at FiveThirtyEight.com:
  •  “The tireless, and occasionally tiresome,” advocacy from liberal bloggers and interest groups.
  • The CBO thinks it will save money.
  • The shift of
... More »

MORE ABOUT:
Congressional Budget Office • health care reform • activists • Nate Silver • public option • health insurance industry • Gang of 6

Analysis

 You Betcha: Palin Won't Run 

She has nothing to gain, and no hope of victory

Oct 21, 09 12:38 PM CDT
(Newser) - Tom Schaller is so sure that Sarah Palin won’t run in 2012, and wouldn’t be nominated if she did, that he’s made a bet on it with fellow FiveThirtyEight.com writer Nate Silver. Schaller’s argument, in a nutshell, is that short of winning the presidency or... More »

MORE ABOUT:
Republican nomination • Republican presidential primaries • Sarah Palin • poll numbers • Nate Silver • Election 2012 • 2012

nate silver

 Rush Got Bum Rap 
 on  Racist Slurs 


Face it, liberal media: Claims he said that stuff look pretty bogus

Oct 15, 09 11:19 AM CDT
(Newser) - Rush Limbaugh is getting such a raw deal in the media that even Nate Silver—who got his start on the Daily Kos—has come to his defense. Lately CNN and the St. Louis Post-Dispatch have repeated racist statements that appear to be "completely made up," Silver... More »

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media • NFL • St. Louis Rams • Rush Limbaugh • race relations • CNN • Nate Silver • Rush Limbaugh racist quotes

Analysis

 Climate Bill's 
 Best Hope? 
 Drill, Baby, 
 Drill 

Kerry/Graham compromise could pick up 2-4 votes

Oct 14, 09 1:13 PM CDT
(Newser) - The new climate bill introduced with some fanfare by John Kerry and Lindsey Graham actually has a fighting chance of getting through the Senate, thanks to its offshore drilling provision. Despite Democrats’ supermajority, cap-and-trade legislation probably only had between 52 and 55 votes before this. But this bill, which also... More »

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climate change • John Kerry • Lindsey Graham • Mark Begich • Nate Silver • Lisa Murkowski • offshore drilling • George LeMieux

ANALYSIS

Delaware Now the 2010 Senate Race to Watch

GOP's Castle could beat likely foe
Beau Biden: Silver

Oct 7, 09 11:49 AM CDT
(Newser) - GOP Rep. Mike Castle just made Delaware’s 2010 senatorial election interesting, writes Nate Silver. The former governor threw in yesterday against “hypothetical” opponent Beau Biden for his father’s open seat, and the odds are decent it will change hands. Though the popular moderate Republican could run into... More »

MORE ABOUT:
Joe Biden • White House • Beau Biden • Delaware • Obama administration • Nate Silver • Election 2010 • Rep. Mike Castle • midterm elections

nate Silver Analysis

Fox Poll Numbers on Health Care Sneakily Biased

Health care question asked after leading ones

Oct 6, 09 11:47 AM CDT
(Newser) - If Fox News’ latest poll were trustworthy, it would be bad news for Democrats; it turned up just 33% of the public supporting health care reform efforts, to 55% opposed, a far worse number than other polls. The natural liberal response: “It’s a Fox poll, so of ... More »

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Fox News • health care reform • poll numbers • Nate Silver • conservative media

(Newser) - Glenn Beck’s popularity as compared to the more “traditional American conservatism” of, say, Rush Limbaugh heralds the advent of a new archetype, Nate Silver writes on FiveThirtyEight: “Beck is a PoMoCon—a postmodern conservative.” A recent poll shows Beck and Limbaugh equally popular while Limbaugh’s... More »

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Rush Limbaugh • Glenn Beck • conservatism • opinion polls • Nate Silver • conservative movement • big government • post-modern • skepticism

(Newser) - The many states hoping gambling will revive their troubled budgets are in for an unpleasant surprise, writes Nate Silver for Esquire. Gambling is supposed to be recession-proof, but that hasn’t been the case this time. "The year 2008 was the first time in history that total casino gaming... More »

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California • taxes • gambling • Las Vegas • Pennsylvania • casino • Delaware • Nevada • Nate Silver • state budgets

(Newser) - A new Investors’ Business Daily poll showing doctors opposed to President Obama’s health care reform is generating some buzz today, but it's so flawed that Nate Silver has only this advice: “Completely ignore” it, he writes on FiveThirtyEight. Here’s why:
  • It's conducted by mail: Hardly
... More »

MORE ABOUT:
physician • poll • health care reform • opinion polls • doctors • Nate Silver • Investors' Business Daily • methodology

(Newser) - When top Blue Dog Dem Mike Ross came out against the public option, he said that “an overwhelming number” of his constituents opposed it. Maybe he's gotten emails to that effect, but if he’d actually bothered to poll his district, he’d probably get a different story, writes... More »

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health care reform • Mike Ross • Blue Dog Democrats • Nate Silver • public option

ANALYSIS

50% Approval Rating Just Another Number: Silver

Obama likely to win re-election, Dems to keep House majority with current numbers

Aug 31, 09 3:11 PM CDT
(Newser) - Much has been made of President Obama’s 50% job-approval rating, but that number in and of itself is “not particularly newsworthy,” writes Nate Silver for FiveThirtyEight.com. Obama could probably win in 2012 even with approval below 50%: George W. Bush was re-elected with the approval of... More »

MORE ABOUT:
Barack Obama • Democrats • House of Representatives • Harry Truman • approval ratings • George W. Bush • re-election • Nate Silver

analysis

Republicans Gain Ground in Senate Races

Latest trends show even Reid, Spector, Dodd in trouble: Silver

Aug 24, 09 11:47 AM CDT
(Newser) - Things are looking brighter for Republicans in the Senate, writes Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com. In his monthly ranking of which seats are most likely to switch parties in 2010, Republicans have made a big move. Of the 10 seats that look more likely to switch hands, seven favor Republicans.... More »

MORE ABOUT:
Senate • New Hampshire • Harry Reid • Senate Democrats • Senate Republicans • Connecticut • Chris Dodd • Nevada • Roy Blunt • US Senate • 2010 election • Nate Silver • Republicans • Kelly Ayotte

 Health-Care Protesters 
 Winning Sympathy: Poll 

34% 'more sympathetic' to protesters, 21% less

Aug 13, 09 10:58 AM CDT
(Newser) - Town-hall protesters have succeeded in making some Americans “more sympathetic” to their health care views, a USA Today/Gallup poll finds. Of 1,000 adults surveyed, 34% say they’re now more sympathetic of the protesters’ stance, while 21% say they’re less. Among independents, that grows to a 2-to-1... More »

MORE ABOUT:
poll • health care reform • town hall meeting • independents • David Axelrod • protesters • Gallup poll • Nate Silver

Analysis

Unemployment Will Probably Miss 10%: Silver


Aug 10, 09 11:52 AM CDT
(Newser) - Lots of economists are predicting that unemployment, which at last count hung at 9.4%, will hit 10% before the calendar changes, but Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com disagrees. For that to happen, the economy would need to lose another million jobs or so, and "the jobs picture is... More »

MORE ABOUT:
unemployment • job market • shrinking workforce • labor market • economy • Nate Silver

(Newser) - As unbelievable as this sounds, given the huge crowds Barack Obama was able to drum up not so long ago, the Democrats could be losing the enthusiasm wars, writes Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com. A new poll from Virginia shows that in its upcoming gubernatorial race, 52% of voters will... More »

MORE ABOUT:
health care • Democrats • Virginia • poll numbers • party identification • Nate Silver • Republicans

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