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NEWS ABOUT: Nate Silver

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Romney Needs to Go Positive, Win Some Fans

Nate Silver says Rick Santorum's voters are a lot more enthusiastic

(Newser) - Mitt Romney's got a big problem in his fight with Rick Santorum: His supporters are a lot less enthusiastic, observes Nate Silver of the New York Times . According to one poll, Santorum is beating Romney by 11 points among people who are definitely going to vote. Romney leads by... More »

Romney's In for a Long, Messy Fight

Nate Silver on Mitt's horrific night in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri

(Newser) - Even after last night, Mitt Romney will probably win the Republican nomination, but "it should be acknowledged that he had about the worst results conceivable," writes Nate Silver of the New York Times . He didn't win a single county in Minnesota, finishing 27 points behind Rick Santorum.... More »

Romney Poised for Decisive Victory

Florida primary polls looking good for Mitt, but there are subplots

(Newser) - Voters will be casting ballots in Florida today, and if polls are any indication, they'll be voting for Mitt Romney. But as always, there are other subplots to watch, too. Here's a rundown of what the pundits are saying:
  • Based on dozens of polls, Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight
... More »

Now All the Polls Love Mitt

Tally of polling data gives Romney 9% lead in Florida: Nate Silver

(Newser) - Not only does a recent Quinnipiac Poll give Mitt Romney the lead in the Florida primary. There are also automated polls, check-box polls, house-call polls, mouse-click polls, partisan polls, academic polls... Nate Silver has added them up in the New York Times and tallied a 9-point overall lead for Romney... More »

Stakes Colossal for Newt Tonight

Polls show Romney may have stopped his momentum ahead of CNN Florida debate

(Newser) - The GOP field will have its last debate before the Florida primary tonight, and it just might be a doozy. Here's why:
  • Newt Gingrich's polling advantage may have vanished. The latest CNN poll has Mitt Romney at 36% and Gingrich at 34%, a statistical tie, and a far
... More »

Gingrich the Favorite in Florida

Nate Silver's model gives him a 75% chance of victory, with some 'buts'

(Newser) - With Florida less than a week away, Nate Silver is busily crunching the numbers, and while the polls are a tad contradictory, they do show a clear favorite: Newt Gingrich. Indeed, Silver's system gives Gingrich a whopping 75% chance of victory, although that "seems like too confident a... More »

Breaking Down the NH Results

It was a good night to be Mitt Romney

(Newser) - The New Hampshire primary is in the books, and pundits are poring over the results for insight. Here's what they're saying:
  • "Expectations, schmexpectations: (Mitt) Romney had a great night," writes Nate Silver of the New York Times . Romney missed his poll numbers, but was swiftly declared
... More »

Huntsman's NH Surge: Too Little, Too Late

Nate Silver expects him to grab 15.6% of the vote, but that's not enough

(Newser) - With a matter of hours to go before the New Hampshire primary, Jon Huntsman appears to finally be seeing a surge of his own—but it may be too little, too late, observes Nate Silver in the New York Times . Recent polls are looking good for the former Utah governor:... More »

Why the Heck Is Perry Still In?

Nate Silver ponders whether the answer is political or personal

(Newser) - Normally when candidates say they're "reassessing" their campaign , they're done for, but for some reason Rick Perry is soldiering on . Why? Nate Silver of the New York Times contemplates that question today, posing two exaggerated hypothetical scenarios: Either a) It was personal. Perry prayed on the decision,... More »

In Iowa, Expect the Unexpected

...And a lot of spin afterward

(Newser) - History suggests that it doesn’t matter who actually wins tonight in Iowa—it matters who exceeds expectations, or fails to meet them. The media is always flabbergasted by strange Iowa finishes, but they shouldn’t be, writes Nate Silver of the New York Times , because thanks to unreliable polls... More »

Careful, Mitt: You Could Lose

Nate Silver doesn't think it's especially likely, but it's possible

(Newser) - Conventional wisdom has crowned Mitt Romney the inevitable Republican nominee. His stock on Intrade shot up to 72% last night, and one of his strategists recently boasted that he couldn’t “see any scenario where we’re not the nominee." But calm down guys, writes Nate Silver in... More »

Obama Is the Underdog

If economy falters, and Mitt Romney is the nominee, watch out

(Newser) - It’s too early for Nate Silver’s usual granular state-by-state election calculus, so the New York Times political prediction guru is looking at the big picture. Obama faces three main challenges: voters think he’s not up to the task, they’re terrified of the economy, and they’re... More »

Pundits, If You're So Sure Cain Will Lose, Take This Bet

If he proves you wrong, promise to stop writing about politics: Nate Silver

(Newser) - Modern politics has never seen the likes of Herman Cain, writes Nate Silver at the New York Times . He has few "fundamentals"—key GOP endorsements, big fundraising, etc.—and yet he's been at or near the top of polls for a while now. He is, in... More »

Stats Can't Explain Sox Collapse

It was spectacularly unlikely

(Newser) - “It’s hard to describe how epic the Red Sox collapse was,” writes Nate Silver in the New York Times , calling it statistically like Bill Buckner’s famous botched play of 1986 “multiplied by itself two or three times over." On Sept. 3, the Red Sox... More »

Hurricane Irene: And the Cost to NYC Will Be...?

A 'bank shot' striking NYC would cost around $35B: Nate Silver

(Newser) - If Hurricane Irene rolls into New York City—the nation's most densely populated area—it could threaten millions of lives, but also cost tens of billions of dollars and "tangibly increase the chance of a recession," Nate Silver writes on the New York Times' FiveThirtyEight blog. "... More »

S&P's Ratings Are Worthless

Nate Silver runs the numbers, and scoffs at ratings firm

(Newser) - Don’t put too much stock in Standard & Poor’s much ballyhooed credit ratings—because they’re astonishingly bad. Nate Silver of the New York Times ran an analysis on S&P’s ratings from five years ago, and found that, had you heeded them, they “would have... More »

Crash May Have Been Worse Than Thought

Nate Silver sees bad things in long-term GDP graph

(Newser) - Need a pick-me-up given today's depressing stock news ? Then be advised that Nate Silver's column in the New York Times is not for you. The stats guru plots GDP going back to 1877 and sees signs that our recent "economic crash was even worse than economists... More »

Obama Could Have Gotten a Better Deal

Nate Silver says the vote tally shows the Republicans cleaned up

(Newser) - The debt ceiling deal President Obama struck with Republicans passed the House by a wide margin, which leads Nate Silver to one conclusion: Obama gave up too much. “Mr. Obama could have shifted the deal tangibly toward the left and still gotten a bill through without too much of... More »

Betting Odds for Top 4 GOP Candidates

It's Romney, Pawlenty, Perry, and Bachmann (in that order): Nate Silver

(Newser) - With the GOP candidates for 2012 out of the gates, statistics whiz Nate Silver sets the odds in the first of a 3-part series for the New York Times . The longshots will be looked at in later installments. His top four:
  • Mitt Romney: 3-2 against—a 40% chance of winning
... More »

Governors Have a Big Advantage in Primaries

Nate Silver breaks down the statistics

(Newser) - Conventional wisdom states that governors have an advantage over senators in presidential primaries—but Nate Silver decided to run the statistics just to be sure. The result? “The advantage may be even more powerful than you think,” he writes on his FiveThirtyEight blog at the New York Times.... More »

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