Snappy newsletters. Simple Facebook sharing. Spirited comments. Sweet features are waiting… GET THEM NOW!

Hot on Facebook
Malaysia Busts 80+ Lovers in Valentine's Day Raids Muslims face up to two years in jail »

NEWS ABOUT: Nate Silver

If Trump Is on Top, GOP Needs Fresh Blood

Maybe it's time for Chris Christie or Paul Ryan to take another look: Nate Silver

(Newser) - Attention Chris Christie, or maybe Paul Ryan? Donald Trump's strong showing in recent polls illustrates just how shaky the GOP's 2012 field is, writes Nate Silver at the New York Times . He breaks the candidates into three groups: The Fairfax Five (think establishment candidates) of Romney, Pawlenty, Huntsman, Barbour, and... More »

How Nate Silver Fills Out His NCAA Bracket

Famed political, baseball analyst winds up picking all the 1-seeds

(Newser) - Nate Silver is a famed political number-cruncher, and was once a revered baseball statistician. So when he goes to fill out his March Madness bracket, he doesn’t just pick whichever names sound good. Instead, the New York Times writer has analyzed data from all the tournament games dating back... More »

Sorry, HuffPo Bloggers, You're Not Worth Anything

Stats guru Nate Silver does the math on HuffPo's bloggers

(Newser) - Huffington Post bloggers should stop whining about their lack of pay , even after the online site was bought by AOL for $315 million—they're just not worth it, writes stats king Nate Silver at the New York Times . Silver crunched the numbers and estimates that the median blog post is... More »

Come 2012, Follow These Polls

Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA tops for accuracy, finds Nate Silver

(Newser) - Now that the dust has settled, whose polls were the best predictors of the actual midterm results? Nate Silver ranks them by accuracy and party bias over the last 21 days of the election cycle. The most accurate, according to his calculations: Quinnipiac, which “showed little bias,” he... More »

How Dems Could Keep the House

Polling inaccuracies might surprise us today

(Newser) - We keep hearing doom and gloom for the Democrats, and there’s a good chance that’s accurate, writes Nate Silver in the New York Times . But thanks to a few potential polling flaws, things could turn out differently; the Dems might even hang onto the House. Here’s why:... More »

No Way to Predict Size of GOP Gains

'Strange election' offers wide range of outcomes, says Nate Silver

(Newser) - Polls are showing a huge range of possible results for tomorrow, with generic ballots suggesting anything from a 15-point Republican lead to a 3-point Democratic lead. “The fact is that there’s not really any way to say who’s right,” writes FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver in... More »

Democrats Pick Up Steam in Senate Races

Reid and Angle a tossup, Manchin and Murray now favored

(Newser) - After a several straight losing weeks, the Democrats gained ground in the battle for the Senate this week, according to New York Times polling guru Nate Silver. Based on 100,000 simulations, Silver’s FiveThirtyEight prediction model now gives the GOP just an 18% chance to take the Senate, down... More »

O'Donnell Win Ruins Odds of GOP Takeover

Forecasting model gives them just a 15% chance

(Newser) - Just how much did Christine O’Donnell’s win hurt the Republicans’ cause? A lot, says forecasting savant Nate Silver of the New York Times . According to Silver’s model, the chances of a Republican Senate takeover have plummeted from 26% to just 15%. Based on current polls, Silver gives... More »

Why New York's Tea Party Win Matters

Carl Paladino may be even more trouble for GOP than O'Donnell

(Newser) - Christine O'Donnell got the most press (click here to see) but tea party favorite Carl Paladino's win in New York might have been an even bigger upset. Here's what the pundits are saying:
  • “The Republican Party of New York is now officially dead,” writes Dan Collins of the
... More »

What O'Donnell's Win Means

Pundits make sense of the morning after

(Newser) - Christine O'Donnell's primary victory has rocked the political world. Here's what the pundits are saying:
  • Delaware native Dave Weigel “cannot remember a time when Mike Castle wasn't being elected to something.” Without his cross-party appeal, the GOP is doomed in Delaware, he writes in Slate . “No one
... More »

GOP Likely to Control 30 Governors' Seats

National wind could boost Republicans' chances locally

(Newser) - Republicans are smelling blood in the November elections, and part of the bleeding is likely to come from governors' mansions across the country, writes Nate Silver over at what used to be FiveThirtyEight.com. The GOP could well end up in control of 30 governors seats—up from its current... More »

Ousting Murkowski Is a Huge Coup for Tea Party

There's little danger of a general election backlash

(Newser) - Tea Party candidates have been accused of hurting Republican chances in some races, but in ousting Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski it’s “on much firmer tactical ground,” writes Nate Silver of the New York Times . Murkowski’s not an “authentically moderate senator such as Olympia Snowe and... More »

Democrats' Grip on Senate Getting Shakier

There's a 20% chance they'll lose control

(Newser) - All of a sudden, the Democrats’ grip on the Senate is looking a whole lot more tenuous. According to Nate Silver’s latest number-crunching, there’s a 20% chance the Democrats will lose the Senate outright. Even if they hang on as expected, they’re likely to take heavy losses,... More »

Gay-Marriage Support Snowballing

Public now probably split about 50-50

(Newser) - Public support for gay marriage seems to be rapidly increasing based on an analysis of polling data dating back to 1988, according to FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver. According to a regression analysis, about 49% of the country probably now favors gay marriage, while 50% are opposed, which is “... More »

Why Kennedy Will Back Gay Rights

He'll be thinking of legacy, and 50 years out this will be obviously right

(Newser) - Now that a federal judge has ruled in favor of overturning Proposition 8, all eyes are on the Supreme Court, and more specifically, on one man: Anthony Kennedy. The perennial swing voter seems likely to swing this case, too, and Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com thinks he’ll swing it... More »

Democrats' Fuzzy Math: We Can't Lose!

According to memo, Republican House takeover is impossible

(Newser) - Democrats might just be getting delusional about their chances in November. In a memo sent to the Washington Post yesterday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee argued that it was, like, virtually impossible for the Republicans to take the House. In their minds, Democrats are guaranteed to win four Republican seats,... More »

Nate Silver Bares His Own JournoList Posts

In what may be the first of many confessionals

(Newser) - With the Daily Caller basically making a business out of leaking comments from emails from the JournoList—a supposedly private email list for left-leaning journalists. So list member Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com decided to go through his own log of 150 or so posts, looking for inflammatory, damning and... More »

Pentagon Blew $4.4M on Useless 'Gaydar' Survey

Survey just tests unit cohesion, homophobia

(Newser) - The Pentagon is coming under fire for blowing $4.4 million on a survey that asks troops various questions about Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell. Many are calling the poll biased—“It is simply impossible to imagine a survey with such derogatory and insulting wording, assumptions, and insinuations,... More »

LeBron Made a Costly 'Decision'

Unpopular move could cost James lots of sponsorships

(Newser) - Maybe LeBron James really does only care about winning, because if he cares about his money or his image, he’s made a really big mistake. LeBron’s Q rating, which measures how many people know and favorably view a person, was a stratospheric 34 until the decision to leave... More »

Don't Trust Any Poll That Omits Cellphones

They're ignoring 25% of the populace

(Newser) - Yeah, it's expensive, but pollsters need to start calling cellphones. According to the latest CDC data, 23% of US adults, or 25% of US households are cellphone-only, writes Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com . Add in “cellphone-mostly” households and that jumps to 40%—and it could be even higher by... More »

Stories 21 - 40 | << Prev   Next >>
NEWS FROM OUR PARTNERS
Other Sites We Like:   24/7 Wall St.   |   Betty Confidential   |   BuzzFeed   |   Cracked   |   Fark   |   Timelines   |   The Frisky   |   Geek Sugar   |   NewsOne