Stories related to: recession

Crude-oil prices have doubled in recent months, a development not linked to fundamental supply and demand—but rather, observers tell Der Spiegel , to rampant speculation among investors looking for a stable buck. The prospect of recession would typically drive prices down, but analysts say a decade-old oil investment rush by pension funds and big banks has made the market volatile and distorted. More »

Newsweek blogger Daniel Gross asks why Wal-Mart, with its sales increasing, appears to be untouched by the US economic slowdown, and comes up with four answers. One, the behemoth mostly sell necessities. Two, its cheaper-than-thou branding is attracting pinched customers. Three, investors like Wal-Mart's prospects down the line. And four, the store is becoming increasingly international. More »

Ben Bernanke’s report to Congress on monetary policy offered a grim outlook on the economy, but ABC News sees some signs that good news may be around the corner: workers in Silicon Valley, a national economic bellwether, feel good about their prospects. Rising exports, the recently-passed stimulus package and the future rate cuts Bernanke will probably make at the Fed’s March 18 meeting are additional reasons for optimism. More »

Wholesale prices rose more than twice as fast as analysts predicted in January, in the latest sign that inflation is outstripping growth, Bloomberg reports. After a 0.3% drop in December, finished good prices rose 1% last month, with the core indicator up 0.4%, its biggest gain in almost a year. Fed chief Ben Bernanke will discuss the inflation statistics tomorrow when he delivers a policy report to Congress, MarketWatch notes. More »

An panel of US economists leaned closer to predicting recession today after grappling with a slew of scary data, the AP reports. More than half of analysts at the National Association for Business Economics maintained that a downturn is still unlikely, but 45% expected recession in 2008; only a quarter saw a 35% chance of recession in a report last September. More »

Oil prices have jumped 16% in two weeks, and analysts tell the Christian Science Monitor the run-up couldn't come at a worse time. As the US economy flirts with recession, beleaguered consumers could end up spending their economic stimulus checks to cover even higher gas prices. The $101.32 per barrel oil gushed to yesterday is attributed to cuts in production and fears that OPEC may trim output further at its meeting next month More »

The Federal Reserve issued a bleak assessment of the economy today, predicting weak growth and rising unemployment this year. Fed officials expect the economy to grow between 1.3% and 2% in 2008, the slowest in five years, the New York Times reports. A separate report today showed consumer prices rising, putting the Fed in a tricky spot as it weighs another rate cut against fears of inflation. More »

The last time consumers were this pessimistic, the country was in the midst of recession. The consumer confidence index is at a level not seen since February 1992, according to Reuters/University of Michigan numbers out today, and "has only been this low during the recessions of the mid 1970s, the early 1980s and the early 1990s," the survey director said. More »

Companies in Silicon Valley are slowing spending and stockpiling funds to prepare for a possible recession, with many startups raising safety-net cash from investors. Venture capitalists, who raised more funds last year than any year since 2001, continue investing, reports the Wall Street Journal , despite a recent survey that found their confidence in the region at a four-year low. More »

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled today that further interest rate cuts might be necessary, citing continuing fallout from the credit and housing market collapses, reports the Wall Street Journal . Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee he expected "a period of sluggish growth, followed by a somewhat stronger pace of growth starting later this year as the effects of monetary and fiscal stimulus begin to be felt." More »

Inflation worries have some Fed officials hinting that interest-rate cuts may slow down, sparking concerns among investors who expect the central bank to trim rates 75 more basis points at its March 18 meeting, reports the Wall Street Journal. Rates have been reduced 2.25% since September—to 3%--in an effort to rally the flagging economy More »

Winter storms and lagging gift-card redemption iced Wal-Mart’s January same-store sales growth, the retailer said, raising concerns the US is in a recession, reports the Wall Street Journal . Wal-Mart expected 2% sales growth in stores open more than a year, but saw sales bump just 0.5%. Its 1.4% rise in same-store sales for the fiscal year was the lowest in 30 years. More »

Economists went negative on Ben Bernanke in a new Wall Street Journal survey, grading the Fed chief at 75 out of 100 points—the lowest mark in two years on the job—and saying he had managed communications poorly and was too attentive to bears and bulls. One watcher said the Fed gave “too little too late on cuts, and has been lax on supervision and regulation.” More »

US service industries took a staggering and unexpected plunge in January, contracting at a pace not seen since the last recession. In today’s non-manufacturing report, which leaked nearly an hour early, the index plummeted from 54.4 to 41.9, far more than the 53 analysts forecast. Stocks fell broadly as a result. More »

Americans' concern over the domestic economy is at a level not seen in nearly 15 years, and voters doubt the Bush stimulus package will avert a recession, a new Washington Post -ABC News poll shows. Eight in 10 Americans rate the economy as "not so good" or "poor," and 39% say the economy and job security are their primary electoral concern. More »

While economists squabble over a possible US recession, Japan has quietly slipped into one. The country’s postwar riches have all but vanished, the Washington Post reports, as its GDP tumbles from fourth to twentieth among the world’s countries and its share of the world’s economy dips from 18% in 1994 to below 10% in 2006. More »

OPEC dashed American hopes for a boost in oil production today, Bloomberg reports. The US and other Western nations wanted more oil on the market to lower prices, but OPEC decided to hold production steady. The consortium, which supplies 40% of the world's oil, is worried that the flagging world economy will reduce demand. More »

The Federal Reserve cut a key interest rate by a half percentage point today, reports the Wall Street Journal, bringing the benchmark overnight lending rate down to 3% even as officials signaled that further cuts were possible. The widely anticipated move follows last week's emergency .75% cut to a rate that stood at 5.25% just a few months ago. More »

Economic growth braked so violently in the fourth quarter of 2007 that it wiped out a stellar third quarter, dragging annual growth to a 5-year low. Last quarter’s 0.6% GDP growth—after 4.9% pace in Q3—was just half what analysts expected, as the housing component plummeted 24%, its biggest fall since 1981. One key inflation gauge also saw a big 2.7% increase, Bloomberg reports. More »

The world economy will still catch a cold when America sneezes, but it won't be as bad as it would have been 5-10 years ago, the Washington Post reports. The International Monetary Fund predicts a 2008 global growth forecast of 4.1%—down from 4.9% last year—largely because of an expectation of a  US downturn. The impact could have been far worse, but American economic dominance has been diluted, leaving other economies better able to weather a US recession. More »