States That Matter

Barack Obama and John McCain each hope to widen the playing field this November, and that could be a good thing for the country, writes Ronald Brownstein for the National Journal. Part of the reason America is so partisan is because it’s politically balkanized. In 2000 and 2004, both candidates resigned themselves to that division, conceding states that will be in play this time around. More »

Barack Obama is running a 50-state campaign, and some of his more breathless supporters have talked up the candidate as the first Democrat to win the South in decades. Not so fast, writes Thomas F. Schaller. As the political scientist explains in a New York Times op-ed, the Obaman dream of retaking the South rests upon false assumptions about race and voting patterns. More »

A blue-state Republican senator up for re-election this fall is showing a serious case of candidate envy in a new ad, Talking Points Memo notes. Oregonian Gordon Smith's spot goes as follows: “Who says Gordon Smith helped lead the fight for better gas mileage and a cleaner environment? Barack Obama! He joined with Gordon and broke through a 20-year deadlock.” More »

Barack Obama has a 12-point lead (49%-37%) over John McCain in a new Los Angeles Times/ Bloomberg poll. With Bob Barr and Ralph Nader in the mix, the margin grows to 15 points (48% to 33%). The poll suggests that both Democrats and independents think Obama will do the best job of fixing the economy, the top issue among voters. The candidates are tied among white voters with 39% each. More »

Forget the old swing-state conventional wisdom. Salon rounds up some experts and asks where the electoral map might flip in November: The eastern Rust belt (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan) is John McCain’s best hope. Ohio is traditionally weakest for Democrats, but the Michigan primary remains a problem, and aging Pennsylvanians are GOP-friendly. More »

Barack Obama holds a 2-point edge over John McCain in recently red Virginia, a poll margin Eric Kleefeld, on Talking Points Memo, sees allowing Obama to make “the map of competitive states really ... much broader than usual this year.” Blogger Nate at FiveThirtyEight.com reads in the numbers that Obama's lead is “an unusually robust one in terms of the Electoral College.” More »

Barack Obama now holds an 11-point margin over his rival in the state that decided the 2004 election. As recently as March, John McCain led in Ohio 49% to 41%; three months later, a significant shift finds Obama winning 50% to 39%. Talking Points Memo notes that polling organization PPP was “almost exactly right” in its pre-vote survey of the Democratic primary. More »

Barack Obama is hardly giving up on Florida and Ohio, but campaign manager David Plouffe thinks the Democrat can win without them. “You have a lot of ways to get to 270,” Plouffe says. “Our goal is not to be reliant on one state on Nov. 4.” Plouffe envisions a redrawn electoral map, where Virginia, Georgia, and several Western states could turn blue. More »

Barack Obama staffers have quietly been working Virginia, a red state Democrats hope to flip, for at least the past month, the Washington Post reports. Their focus is voter registration, with Tim Kaine's strategy in his successful 2005 gubernatorial campaign as a model. More »

Barack Obama’s campaign will hit GOP-dominated states as the candidate looks toward November, starting tomorrow with North Carolina, the New York Times reports. Obama hopes he can turn those states blue with the help of get-out-the-vote operations launched during the primaries—and aims to use his financial heft to compete in states that haven't voted Democratic in decades. More »

Last night was not a triumphant coronation for Barack Obama, whose campaign limped over the finish line in Montana and South Dakota. But the Illinois senator's victory over Hillary Clinton—one of the biggest upsets in US political history, writes the Washington Post —was never about glamorous wins in battleground states. Rather, the campaign fought delegate by delegate in an uphill "slog" against the establishment candidate. More »

Right now, John McCain has America’s commercial breaks all to himself, and he’s using them, reports the Wall Street Journal. McCain spent $170,000 Wednesday, which puts him on pace for $1.2 million per week, after spending $1.5 million over the past two months. Most of that money is flowing into Ohio, and to a lesser extent other battleground states, and hammering an uncharacteristic issue: the economy. More »

Hillary Clinton was projected to win the Puerto Rico primary by a wide margin today as polls closed, but turnout was estimated to be lower than the 700,000 that Bill Clinton said would support her emphasis on the popular vote. Hillary, Bill, and Chelsea Clinton had spent a combined 15 days campaigning in the primary once seen as a footnote, MSNBC reports. More »

Hillary Clinton is banking on a sizable victory today in Puerto Rico to bolster her argument that she’s received more votes than Barack Obama and is a stronger draw for Latinos. Key points to keep an eye on: The second wave: While many Puerto Ricans sleep in, it's going to be clear by 1pm whether there will be a big turnout. And polls are open til 3pm. The battle for San Juan: Puerto Rico's biggest urban district represents Obama's best chance, but Clinton has campaigned vigorously. More »

By Democratic Party rules, the long-awaited committee meeting on Saturday is authorized to re-seat no more than half of the outlaw delegations from Florida and Michigan, party lawyers have advised in a new memo. The Rules and Bylaws Committee is required to maintain a penalty for the leapfrogging states that cuts their original delegate counts at least by half, the AP reports. More »

Barack Obama is touring the Mountain West, Politico reports, territory advisers believe could be crucial in the general election. At stake are Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, states George Bush won by small margins in 2004—and in which the GOP has since lost popularity, especially on immigration and among Hispanics. More »

Oregon voters' sympathy for "the cool, cerebral type" bodes well for Obama in today's primary, according to the folks at Politico , who bring us five things to watch for in the Beaver State: How quick will it be called?—Oregon is three hours behind the eastern seaboard, but the mail-in votes can be quickly counted electronically. More »

Barack Obama's West Virginia loss by a whopping 30 points probably won’t cost him the Democratic nomination, writes John Dickerson in Slate. But the loss does put a chink in Obama’s argument that he can unite disparate groups, since, apparently, these powers have failed him among at least one key voting block—the blue-collar whites that are Hillary Clinton's base. More »

Much has been made of Barack Obama’s “Jewish problem,” but while it’s hurt him in the primaries—he’s done 10 points worse among Jewish voters—it will have little or no meaning in November, SV Date writes in the New Republic . The demographic is most politically meaningful in Florida, and 80% of Jews there dependably vote Democratic. More »

Oregon’s primary, usually a non-event, is shaping up to get an unusual amount of attention this time around, the Oregonian reports. The state has 52 delegates at stake—huge among remaining contests—and is likely to be crucial for the Democrats in the fall as well. Says a state party official: “There’s talk that it’s going to be the last battleground state.” More »