Superdelegate Watch

Concerns about party unity are keeping Al Gore and other senior Democrats neutral in the Barack Obama/Hillary Clinton face-off—at least for now, the New York Times reports. Party elders are painfully aware that infighting or back-room dealing at the Democratic National Convention could look like the will of the people is being thwarted and sour the public on the whole party. More »

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have given $890,000 to campaigns of the 796 superdelegates who could decide the Democratic presidential nomination, a nonpartisan research group says. Such donations “have been a generally reliable predictor of whose side a superdelegate will take,” the report notes. Obama's PAC has given $694,000, including $228,000 to 34 delegates who support him. More »

If the Democratic primary comes down to the superdelegate vote, the historic black man-vs.-white-woman race will be decided by ... white men. At least 46% of the party’s superdelegates are white men, compared to just 28% of Democratic voters. “Obviously, it’s an imperfect system,” one representative tells Politico. “I do think you’ll see some reform after this.” More »

Barack Obama has taken a lead of more than 100 delegates in the race for the Democratic nomination, leaving Hillary Clinton with a deficit she's not likely to make up unless she wins Texas and Ohio with a landslide, the New York Times reports. With dwindling options, aides say she'll push aggressively to seat disqualified delegates from Florida and Michigan, where she won the primaries unopposed, a move likely to be highly divisive. More »

Even after Barack Obama's weekend primary victories, he and Hillary Clinton are neck-and-neck in the delegate race thanks to her lead among superdelegates. By the AP's count, Clinton has won endorsements from 243 of the 796 party officials and insiders who vote at the convention for the candidate of their choice. Obama has commitments from 156. More »

Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have long been courting superdelegates—the 796 Democratic insiders whose votes are becoming ever more critical to their party's nomination—but the situation is rife with potential pitfalls, explains the Washington Post . The idea that the votes of everyday Democrats may not end up deciding their candidate is just the beginning of the problem. The superdelegates—worth the equivalent of two Californias—give extra nominating clout to the party's elected officials. More »

With three monster victories yesterday, Barack Obama could be poised to extend his pledged, "locked-in" delegate lead over Hillary Clinton before March 4 brings contests in Ohio and Texas. The gain is a feather in the cap of the Illinois senator's strategists, who had been doubted for aiming so much money at races after Super Tuesday, Politico reports. More »

Michigan and Florida Democrats—stripped of delegates to the national convention when the states moved their primaries ahead of Super Tuesday—could get another shot at helping select the candidate, the Wall Street Journal reports. With Hillary Clinton and Obama in a dead heat, pressure is mounting on the states to come up with a new delegate-selection process, such as a caucus or convention, that doesn't violate party rules. More »

Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are deadlocked after yesterday's nearly national vote. Here are four takes on their race: Upcoming votes favor Obama heavily, Noam Scheiber argues. Primaries in black-heavy Louisiana, Virginia, Maryland and DC—and several caucuses—should break for him. Clinton has a March 4 firewall in Texas and Ohio, but Obama has time to contest those. More »

With delegate allocations still incomplete after last night's voting, Barack Obama claims to have taken a lead over Hillary Clinton in Super Tuesday delegates. Counts vary, but they all show the two candidates virtually tied. NBC gives Obama about 840 to Clinton's 830—“give or take a few,” Tim Russert said on the Today show this morning, Politico reports. NBC has the running totals for the two Democrats only about 70 delegates apart, Russert said. More »

The Washington Post runs down the major lessons to be learned fro Super Duper Tuesday: Will either race end? The GOP candidate will almost definitely be decided; the Democratic nominee won't. How do we score victories? The GOP has winner-take-all primaries; the Democrats will debate delegate count, popular vote, and statewide wins. Which states matter? For both parties, California; for Democrats, Missouri and Arizona, too. More »

So-called super delegates will end up crowning the Democratic presidential nominee, Open Left’s Chris Bowers blogs. Even if Hillary Clinton wins a whopping 937 delegates to Barack Obama’s 862 on Super Tuesday, she would have to score 76% of the rest to win the nod. That's where 796 super delegates—governors, congressmen, and other party bigwigs—come into play. More »

Barack Obama is pulling out in front of Hillary Clinton in Missouri and California the day before all-important Super Tuesday, according to the latest Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll. GOP contender John McCain is well ahead of Mitt Romney in New York and New Jersey, but Romney has boosted his lead in California, the delegate jackpot of tomorrow's 24 contests, which could puncture McCain's frontrunner status. More »

Hillary Clinton is all but ceding Saturday's South Carolina primary to Barack Obama, just one variation of the political calculus Democratic presidential candidates are using ahead of Super Tuesday primaries February 5, the Washington Post reports. Clinton will spotlight states with personal history—Arkansas and New York—and two with delegate counts—California and New Jersey. More »