Throwdown in Ohio

Barack Obama now holds an 11-point margin over his rival in the state that decided the 2004 election. As recently as March, John McCain led in Ohio 49% to 41%; three months later, a significant shift finds Obama winning 50% to 39%. Talking Points Memo notes that polling organization PPP was “almost exactly right” in its pre-vote survey of the Democratic primary. More »

Right now, John McCain has America’s commercial breaks all to himself, and he’s using them, reports the Wall Street Journal. McCain spent $170,000 Wednesday, which puts him on pace for $1.2 million per week, after spending $1.5 million over the past two months. Most of that money is flowing into Ohio, and to a lesser extent other battleground states, and hammering an uncharacteristic issue: the economy. More »

Ian Brodie, chief of staff to Canada's prime minister and the key figure in the "NAFTA-gate" scandal, will step down by summer, the Globe and Mail reports. Brodie, the architect of the Conservative Party's victory in 2006 elections, is under investigation in leaks that clouded the Democratic primary in Ohio in March. More »

The scope of the Barack Obama NAFTA memo scandal widened again yesterday, with Canadian opposition legislators calling for the resignation of Canada's ambassador to the US after he was implicated, the Globe and Mail reports. Michael Wilson admitted speaking to the reporter who broke the story that the candidate was voicing opposition to the trade agreement merely for political purposes. More »

Amid cross-party outcry, the prime minister of Canada says he'll expand an investigation into the NAFTA leak that may have contributed to Barack Obama's loss in Ohio, reports the Globe and Mail . The opposition is calling for the head of Ian Brodie, PM Stephen Harper's chief of staff, who is reported to have leaked the memo that said Obama's campaign against the trade agreement was only "political positioning." More »

A memo leaked by Canadian diplomats was "regrettable," the US ambassador to Ottawa said today, but not, as he hinted earlier, "interference" in America's electoral process, Reuters reports. The document detailed a meeting between Canadian officials and a member of Barack Obama's campaign, who said Obama wasn't as opposed to NAFTA as his rhetoric indicated. More »

Hillary Clinton's victories in Texas and Ohio changed little in the race for pledged delegates—by some estimates she netted only five—but Tuesday's primaries changed the dynamic of the Democratic contest, the Wall Street Journal reports. The candidates have divergent arguments: Barack Obama's team says the math favors him; Clinton's claims she should be the nominee if momentum lies with her. More »

Hillary Clinton's victories in Texas and Ohio herald a long, ugly scrap for the Democratic nomination—and the big loser may be the party, reports Newsweek . It remains unknown how many delegates the New York senator won last night, but Clinton can now brush aside calls for her to end her candidacy as the race moves to its next big battleground: Pennsylvania, six weeks away on April 22. More »

Hillary Clinton scored her dramatic comeback in last night's primaries by getting tough—even nasty—with her opponent, Josh Marshall writes on TPM, and the question is now whether Barack Obama has it in him to fight that kind of fight. "Can he take this back to Hillary Clinton, demonstrate his ability to take punches and punch back?" If Obama wants to win this, Ben Smith writes on Politico, “he’ll need to shove her off the stage.” More »

Hillary Clinton today hinted that she’d be willing to bury the hatchet and share a ticket with Barack Obama, the AP reports. “That may be where this is headed,” Clinton told CBS’ The Early Show, “but of course we have to decide who is on the top of ticket. I think the people of Ohio very clearly said that it should be me.” More »

Hillary Clinton pulled off victories in both Texas and Ohio largely by wooing back her Democratic base, according to Politico . Exit polls show that Hispanics and white women favored Clinton, while blacks favored Obama by a huge margin, and white men were split—similar to Super Tuesday. But white men appeared to provide the crucial "swing vote" in Ohio with 55% going to Clinton. The candidate has picked up 15 percentage points with white women and about 20 points with white men since Wisconsin. More »

John McCain officially clinched the Republican nomination for president tonight, the Washington Post reports. Mike Huckabee conceded after McCain racked up easy wins in Texas, Ohio, Vermont, and Rhode Island to surpass the necessary number of delegates—1,191. He is expected to go to the White House tomorrow to collect an endorsement from President Bush. More »

Traders in online prediction markets are betting on Barack Obama and John McCain as the winners in their respective primaries today. The Intrade and Iowa Electronic futures markets let traders wager real money on outcomes political and otherwise; both markets give Obama's chances for winning the nomination as almost 80%, reports CNNMoney. More »

On the eve of primary contests that could sink or save her campaign, Hillary Clinton turned up on The Daily Show for some good-natured ribbing from host Jon Stewart. "Tomorrow is perhaps one of the most important days of your life, and you've chosen to spend the night before talking to me," observed the pseudo-newscaster, to which Clinton could only respond: "It is pretty pathetic." More »

Hillary Clinton hammered Barack Obama today over reports that his chief economic adviser privately told Canadian officials anti-Nafta talk was “more about political positioning than a clear articulation of policy.” The simmering story lurched forward today when the AP obtained the Canadian memo, reports Talking Points Memo. Obama's aide called the memo “a pretty ham-handed description of what I answered.” More »

As Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama barnstormed across Ohio today, experts fretted that a delay in vote-counting on Tuesday may add to mistrust over the state's elections, the Columbus Dispatch reports. Predicted record turnout and the option to vote by ballot or touch-screen may confuse primary voters and remind the country of Ohio's 2004 election controversy, said an analyst. More »

Top Democrats are urging Hillary Clinton to quit if she can’t score big in Tuesday’s primaries, the New York Times reports. Senators John Kerry and Dick Durbin, both Obama backers, and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson pressed her today to consider party unity if she loses in Texas and Ohio. “I just think that D-Day is Tuesday,” Richardson said on “Face the Nation." More »

Hillary Clinton trails Barack Obama by 4% in Texas and holds a statistically meaningless 1-point lead in Ohio just two days ahead of what could be defining contests in both states, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/ Houston Chronicle poll released today. But "it's way too close in both states to say either one has a significant advantage," pollster John Zogby said. More »

Barack Obama is lavishing his considerable campaign wealth on advertising and get-out-the-vote efforts in Texas and Ohio, hoping to deal a death blow this week to Hillary Clinton's faltering campaign. The Obama cash blitz is most apparent on television, where he is outspending Clinton nearly 2-to-1 in both states, the New York Times reports. More »

As Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama battle for votes in Ohio, each pushes a simple theme: NAFTA is bad. Ohio has been hit hard by free trade, which is why Obama reminds voters that Bill Clinton backed NAFTA. And both hopefuls have mined each other's comments for anything that favors global trade, the Christian Science Monitor reports. More »