A House Divided

Media can't settle on a superdelegate count these days because many of the mucky-mucks refuse to name a candidate, Politico reports. Current figures all have Clinton leading Obama—and she needs the votes badly—but media estimates vary from 256-225 to 221-209. “This is an art rather than a science," the New York Times ’ political editor said. More »

John McCain reversed his laissez-faire policy on the mortgage crisis today, saying government should indeed help subprime mortgage holders get guaranteed 30-year mortgages. “There is nothing more important than keeping alive the American dream to own your home,” the Republican said. McCain was criticized for his earlier stance that neither banks nor borrowers should be rewarded for acting irresponsibly. More »

David Brock, the once-right-wing journalist who led an assault on Bill Clinton in the early '90s, is taking the lead in a Democratic attack campaign against John McCain, Politico reports. The Brock-helmed group Progressive Media USA is planning a $40-million media blitz aimed at McCain; the group currently has $7.5 million in commitments. More »

Tonight’s "American Idol" will boast cameos from Miley Cyrus, Brad Pitt, and both the Manning and Jonas brothers—but the most anticipated appearances could be by Hillary Clinton, John McCain, and Barack Obama, the New York Post reports. The charity episode is exhibition-only (no candidate will actually score Paula Abdul’s vote), but there will be much pop-culture popularity at stake. More »

If voters judged the Democratic candidates by the standard Hillary Clinton has been promoting—competent leadership—her own performance at the helm of her campaign isn't making her case, write Jim VandeHei and David Paul Kuhn in Politico. While Clinton’s had two major staff shakeups, major money problems, and a constant message crisis, Barack Obama has led what one Hillary supporter calls “one of the best-run presidential campaigns in the last 20 years.” More »

Elizabeth Edwards said this morning she has “more confidence in Senator Clinton’s policy than Senator Obama’s” on health care, fueling speculation that the famous political spouse could endorse Hillary in the Democratic presidential race. Edwards has also become a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, which Jay Carney, in Time , calls “a kind of Hillary Clinton Administration-in-waiting.” More »

The demotion of Mark Penn in Hillary Clinton's campaign hasn't ended the problem the errant consultant is causing her in Pennsylvania, Bloomberg reports. Unions supporting Barack Obama have pounced on the strategist's advocacy of a Colombian free-trade deal, calling him pro-business and anti-worker. "She has to sever completely with Mark Penn," said Teamsters president James Hoffa. "Her credibility is at stake." More »

Futures traders are betting Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee—and that the Democrats will take the White House. Although they expect Hillary Clinton to take three upcoming primaries, groups based in Iowa and Dublin give Obama an 86% chance of winning the party’s nod, compared to 12.8% for Clinton. Studies say such predictions are about as accurate as public polls, Reuters reports. More »

Today’s Capitol Hill appearance by Gen. David Petraeus was a golden opportunity for the White House hopefuls to flex their Iraq rhetoric, the Los Angeles Times reports. Hillary Clinton called for a troop withdrawal; though she agreed the decisions weren’t “easy,” she said the Bush administration “often talks about the costs of leaving Iraq … while ignoring the greater costs of staying.” More »

John McCain slammed his Democratic presidential rivals today over their calls for an Iraq troop withdrawal, calling the notion “the height of irresponsibility.” Speaking to veterans in Kansas City, McCain said a quick departure would be “imprudent and dangerous." The remarks foreshadowed political heat over this week's visit to Capitol Hill by Gen. David Petraeus, the Los Angeles Times reports. More »

Barack Obama is beating Hillary Clinton in the delegate count only because of the eccentricities of the Democratic Primary system, argues Sean Wilentz on Salon. Like it or not, the general election will be a winner-take-all affair, and if the primaries were conducted the same way, Clinton would lead Obama 1,430 delegates to 1,257, with her total jumping to 1,743 if Florida and Michigan were counted. More »

Mark Penn might have shaped the Clinton campaign, but he wasn’t well liked within it, Ben Smith writes in Politico. Some blamed him for the campaign's strategic blunders, while others were irked by his huge salary—he’s billed Clinton $13 million—and private-sector distractions. “It was very demoralizing for the staff that's working 24/7 to see him doing book tours,” said one Clinton supporter. More »

Florida and Michigan delegates will likely have to wait until June to see whether they can participate in the party’s convention, Howard Dean said on Face the Nation today. The DNC chairman said Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama would rather focus on the final primaries, which will end on June 3, the AP reports. "But I think we can work it out, and I want to work it out," he said. More »

How does a Democratic candidate know it's time to quit? Common indicators like low funds, indifferent press, and fading support may not apply in this year's race, where both hopefuls have enough of all three to last to the convention. Instead, one may quit when fighting on hurts that candidate’s political future, writes John Dickerson in the Washington Post . More »

Barack Obama is aiming to win pro-gun votes in Pennsylvania by touting the Second Amendment, Politico reports. His camp emailed state gun clubs this week about “the right and traditions of sportsmen" as Obama courted Pennsylvania's pro-gun Democratic lawmakers. The NRA fired back at Obama—and Hillary Clinton, too—calling overtures “scripted rhetorical tricks.” More »

Stumping in Oregon today, Hillary Clinton kept up her fight to recognize Florida and Michigan primary results, saying the votes had been “officially tallied,” the AP reports. “The question is whether those 2.3 million Democrats will be honored.” Meanwhile Barack Obama’s camp, which has offered to evenly split the disputed delegates, reminded reporters that Clinton once said the contests “didn’t count for anything.” More »

Barack Obama held a 5-point lead over Hillary Clinton in the latest Gallup poll and grabbed a rare 45%-45% tie with John McCain. McCain usually polls higher than either Democrat, and currently edges Clinton 47% to 45%. The numbers are a sign that Obama has overcome his January/February swoon, largely attributed to the Jeremiah Wright scandal, the Swamp blog reports. More »

John Kerry was mulling a pick for vice president at this time 4 years ago, but Democratic hopefuls today refuse to name a running mate. Still, Politico’s Ben Smith has an early roundup of who could be Clinton’s and Obama’s first choices in the No. 2 slot. More »

Democrats are calling for another stimulus package to help American workers as unemployment soars, the New York Times reports. Almost 250,000 American jobs have been lost since the beginning of the year—including 80,000 in March—leading one policy expert to say it's time the government switched focus from the housing crisis to the flagging job market. More »

Jimmy Carter all but endorsed Barack Obama as the Democratic presidential nominee, Reuters reports. His home state of Georgia went to Obama, Carter reminded a Nigerian newspaper, and his children and their families support the Illinois senator. "As a superdelegate,” he continued, “I would not disclose who I am rooting for but I leave it to you to make that guess." More »